Osamah Alsayegh, "Lessons From Kuwait: How the Country''s Rentier Democracy Is Slowing Its Energy Transition" (Houston: Rice University''s Baker Institute for Public Policy, April 5, 2023), https://doi /10.25613/R1ZE-AM65.
Although achieving a sustainable energy transition poses critical challenges for the hydrocarbon-dependent economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the GCC countries have announced ambitious energy transition targets, seizing potential economic opportunities involving clean technology deployment and energy demand management measures. Energy transition progress varies among the GCC states, however, Kuwait, for example — the only democratic country in the GCC — has made slow headway, giving rise to the question of whether there is a relationship between political system type and advancement toward energy transition goals.
This study investigates the role of the GCC states'' political systems in advancing (or discouraging) the energy transition. It focuses on Kuwait, which embraces a democratic political system and has made slow progress toward energy transition targets, and addresses the following questions:
To answer these research questions, a review of Kuwait''s legal and legislative proposals and approvals from Jan. 1, 2012, to Jan. 31, 2023, was completed using the document database made available by the Kuwait National Assembly, the country''s legislative body. Then, a quantitative and associated qualitative analysis was carried out to deduce the results. The findings suggest that Kuwait''s broader political system has persistently played an indirect role in slowing the country''s pace of progress toward the energy transition. The study concludes by recommending short- and long-term mitigation policies to stimulate Kuwait''s energy transition development.
As such, a nation''s political system has a strong role in the development and progress of its energy transition process.[4] It influences the design of the transition''s governance framework, the development of its financing tools, and the regulation of its market, in addition to driving public opinion and awareness.[5] Historically, there has been a causal relationship between a society''s transition from one energy system to another with its type of political system. This causal relationship has evolved throughout time.[6]
In nations with democratic political systems, the political strategies surrounding the energy transition usually involve coalitional structures that advocate for (or discourage) the transition process. Such coalitions typically involve government, businesses, and the public.[7] Nations develop energy policies through the framework of their political ideology and the influence of public opinion.[8] As such, the sociopolitical feasibility of achieving a net-zero target is always taken into consideration, in addition to technological and economic feasibility.[9]
The GCC states'' overall progress toward net-zero targets shows Kuwait as an outlier in energy transition endeavors — hence, the research motive for investigating the role of the GCC countries'' political systems in the development of their national energy transition efforts.
Because it is the only democratic GCC state and lags behind the others with regard to energy transition development, Kuwait is the focus of this study. The lessons that emerge are a call for Kuwait''s policymakers and elite to reform their political system into one capable of responding to the short- and long-term challenges of the sustainable energy transition.
The case of the GCC states is somewhat unique. Though their people share similar cultures and values, their political systems vary significantly. Most are absolute monarchies with limited political representation and restricted civil liberties. Kuwait is the exception; its public contributes to the country''s administration by influencing legislation and monitoring the government-run employment system via the Kuwaiti National Assembly, whose members are freely elected.
Table 1 — Parliamentary Structures of Gulf Cooperation Council States
Kuwait is a constitutional monarchy headed by the emir. Constitutionally, the emir must be a member of the ruling Al-Sabah family and descended from Mubarak Al-Sabah, who ruled until 1915. The system of government is based on the principle of separated executive, legislative, and judicial powers, which are all headed by the emir. The emir also appoints the prime minister, who holds the authority to appoint the state secretaries who make up the Kuwaiti Cabinet.
Unlike other democratic nations, Kuwait lacks a process by which coalitions of government, businesses, and the public can influence the political strategy surrounding the energy transition. This is reflected in its energy transition progress. The Arab Future Energy Index (AFEX), which uses 30 indicators to assess key aspects of the energy market in Arab countries, including policies, institutional and technical capacities, strategies, socioeconomic factors, and investments,[14] ranks the GCC states by their level of progress in renewable energy and energy efficiency. Kuwait — the GCC''s only democratic nation — has fallen behind most of the nondemocratic GCC states in these areas (Table 2).
Table 2 — Indicator Scores Assessing Gulf Cooperation Council States'' Progress in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (out of 100)
Table 3 — Residential Sector Electricity Tariffs in Kuwait and Dubai
The contrasts illustrated above raise the question of whether Kuwait''s democratic political system plays a role in holding back the nation''s energy transition progress. The research questions addressed in this paper are meant to assess the impact of a democratic political system (i.e., that of Kuwait) on a GCC state''s ability to advance a clean energy agenda: 1) Does democracy in Kuwait have a direct impact, an indirect impact, or no influence on energy transition development? 2) What is the extent of the impact of Kuwait''s political system on its energy transition agenda? 3) What aspects (if any) of Kuwait''s political system hinder energy transition development?
An empirical, evidence-based methodology was used to address these research questions. Using the Kuwait National Assembly database, legislative proposals and approvals from Jan. 1, 2012, to Jan. 31, 2023, were identified and reviewed. In 2012, the late Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah announced that Kuwait would meet 15% of its local energy demand from renewable sources by 2030 — hence, the date range used for this study. For the purposes of this study, 2012 is considered the official year that Kuwait began to work toward transitioning its various sectors to a mix of conventional and clean energies.
The applied methodology involved 1) surveying the Kuwait National Assembly database and identifying energy transition-related actions, 2) categorizing each energy transition-related action by procedure type, e.g., bills and enacted laws, 3) assessing and classifying each action according to the corresponding energy transition pillar (e.g., governance, research and development, etc.), 4) analyzing the level of motivation for a particular action and inferring the role of the political system toward the outcome, and 5) addressing the research questions. Figure 2 illustrates the methodological scheme.
Figure 2 — Research Methodology
The National Assembly''s online information system[18] was utilized to access the database of legislative actions and other related documents. The database consists of 26 sections, each covering a particular topic, activity, or affair. Examples of sections are "Emiri Decrees," full-text decrees issued by the emir of Kuwait from 1954 to date; "Parliament Meeting Records," full-text meeting records of assembly sessions from 1962 to date; "Interrogation," full-text records of assembly testimonies from 1963 to date; and "Suggestion of Law," full-text documents that include proposed legal clauses from 1963 to date.
Four sections were reviewed:
These four sections were selected because they provide information on the level of awareness, interest, and motivation with regard to the energy transition among the public (represented by the National Assembly) and the overall political system (i.e., the National Assembly and Cabinet).
From Jan. 1, 2012, to Jan. 31, 2023, the four sections comprise 11,140 total documents: 5,847 suggestions for desired actions, 3,510 suggestions of law, 881 bills, and 902 laws that have gone into force. The following keywords were used to identify the documents: alternative, carbon, conservation, electricity, emission, energy, environment, fuel, gas, nuclear, oil, petroleum, renewable, subsidy, tariff, tax, waste, and water.
Table 4 displays the search results. The documents are categorized under titles that reflect their general topic. The dates of legislative requests and follow-ups are also included.
Table 4 — Proposed and Enacted Legislation Related to the Energy Transition (Jan. 1, 2012, to Jan. 31, 2023)
From Jan. 1, 2012, to Jan. 31, 2023, there were approximately 11,140 requests, follow-ups, and approvals regarding proposed legislation. Of these, 111 were related to the energy transition, comprising close to 1% of all appeals (Table 4). The Kuwaiti Cabinet and National Assembly succeeded in passing only three energy transition-related laws — i.e., 0.3% of 902 laws approved in total. This raises the question of how popular energy transition affairs are in the country and where they rank in priority within the political system.
Figure 3 — Suggestions for Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Actions and Laws (National Assembly and Cabinet)
Figure 3 illustrates action by Kuwait''s Cabinet and National Assembly on renewable energy and energy efficiency over time between 2012 and 2023. The variety of energy transition topics and their associated dates imply a lack of coordination between the two houses of government toward renewable energy and energy efficiency goals.
For example, the National Assembly has continued to request renewable energy feasibility studies, even though several studies by public and private research organizations have been conducted and published alongside road maps for the implementation of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects.[19] The country''s legislative authority appears uninformed, and would benefit from greater communication by the Cabinet on the findings of these research studies. Such cooperation would help the Kuwaiti government to better plan for and reach renewable energy milestones.
Given that Kuwait announced in 2012 its goal of meeting 15% of local electricity demand from renewable energy sources by 2030, the assembly''s appeals for the construction of central renewable energy power plants in 2018, 2021, and 2023 came late. This, once more, illustrates the low priority of the energy transition agenda in the political system.
Figure 4 — Proposed Pro- and Anti-energy Transition Actions and Laws, 2013-2023 (National Assembly)
Though most of the energy transition-related appeals advocate for renewable or clean energy technologies (i.e., 40% of energy transition-related appeals), none of the proposals have materialized — reflecting the overall progress of renewable energy deployment in Kuwait. Today, renewables contribute about 0.2% of total electricity generation.[23] There is no official, systematic governance structure for renewable and clean energy supply chain deployment, including investment, incentives, market, infrastructure, etc. This implies that the Cabinet and National Assembly have only dealt superficially with the development of renewable energy projects. So far, the energy transition in Kuwait is an ambitious vision to be realized in the long-term future.
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