The report provides recommendations for Tajikistan for electricity trade options with its neighbours for the next ten years. The recommended actions are intended to take place between 2021 and 2030 to help achieve the goals stated in the National Strategy for Development for 2030. Contact online >>
The report provides recommendations for Tajikistan for electricity trade options with its neighbours for the next ten years. The recommended actions are intended to take place between 2021 and 2030 to help achieve the goals stated in the National Strategy for Development for 2030.
Limited cross-border electricity trading opportunities hinder Tajikistan from optimising the advantages of its hydro resources. This affects its ability to pay liabilities and raise capital to further develop its power generation fleet (ADB, 2016).
Several options for Tajikistan''s cross-border electricity trading are explored in this report. The analysis indicates that resource availability and variations in seasonal electricity demand profiles in relation to its neighbours provide opportunities for Tajikistan to export electricity.
developing areas. Energy self-sufficiency has been defined as total primary energy production divided by total primary energy supply. Energy trade includes all commodities in Chapter 27 of the Harmonised System (HS). Capacity utilisation is calculated as annual generation divided by year-end capacity x 8,760h/year. Avoided
Tajikistan''s Winter Energy Crisis. Electricity Supply and Demand Alternatives. Daryl Fields, Artur Kochnakyan, Takhmina Mukhamedova, Gary Stuggins, and John Besant-Jones. Washington, D.C. A WORLD BANK STUDY. CAEWDP. Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program
Limited cross-border electricity trading opportunities hinder Tajikistan from
Several options for Tajikistan''s cross-border electricity trading are explored in this
IEA (2021), Cross-Border Electricity Trading for Tajikistan: A Roadmap, IEA, Paris https://, Licence: CC BY 4.0
In this section we consider Tajikistan''s opportunities for electricity trade with neighbouring countries. The main features assessed are demand patterns, prevailing cost of generation and infrastructure requirements.
The potential degree of integration that could be feasible between Tajikistan and its different neighbours in the next ten years is assessed. Ultimately of course, these are choices to be made by the relevant stakeholders and their perception of trade opportunities and risks relative to their respective resources.
The figure below shows a hierarchy of power system integration models. These vary from ones that are very limited, e.g. the simplest model being unidirectional power trading, to ones that can be considered complete. The fully integrated model is represented by the PJM system in the United States, which organises markets, supports transmission planning and manages generator dispatch across a wide geographic area that includes multiple jurisdictions. Different models require varying levels of cross-border collaboration and resource sharing, from low levels in bilateral trade models to high levels in more unified models.1
Higher degrees of integration generally allow for more optimal use of common resources such as transmission grids, thereby shortening the payback periods and maximising the economic outcome for the participants.
Multilateral trades can coexist alongside other differentiated (market or non-market) arrangements such as long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) or non-financial power exchanges, wherein the participants are not restricted from such choices. A common feature among these models is third-party access to the domestic grid, so that any generator can directly supply a demand in another jurisdiction for a defined trading period. The assessment of a likely degree of integration depends on the common economic and political interest among the countries.
There is a high level of complementarity of resources for the power sector among the Central Asian countries. During the summer, Tajik and Kyrgyz surpluses from hydropower could be exported to the rest of the region, while during the winter thermal power from coal and gas could be exported from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Winter peak electricity demand in the gas-producing countries is not as significant as in Tajikistan because those countries have systems and appliances to use gas for heating.
The average cost of generation in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is generally higher than the average cost of hydropower in Tajikistan. Prevailing retail electricity subsidies are still common, but there is a clear opportunity for Tajikistan to trade electricity especially as the region adopts more market-oriented and cost-recovery approaches. Given that the transmission infrastructure is in place, the cost of reconnection would be lower than new construction and the region could focus on grid reinforcement to improve system security.
In addition, if the Central Asian countries move to increase the share of variable renewables in their generation mix, then developing a more integrated market would expand the trade opportunities for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to provide ancillary services. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have high potential for solar PV and wind energy. Maximising the potential of these renewable resources could serve as an additional driver to deepen integration of the regional electricity market.
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