
The world stands at a pivotal point in the journey toward decarbonization—emissions need to reduce by half by 2030 and reduce steeply thereafter.
Challenges include fostering global cooperation; strengthening climate policies; navigating technological transitions (including negative emissions technologies); overcoming infrastructure limitations; and securing substantial investments. In addition, a just transition is needed, one that includes reskilling workers and addressing socioeconomic disparities.
On the other hand, the transition to sustainability and clean energy presents a tremendous market opportunity, requiring unprecedented global investments of $8 trillion to $11 trillion annually to 2050 (Exhibit 1).
As the eighth-largest contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Indonesia''s role in global decarbonization is increasingly critical. With historical trends indicating a potential doubling of its emissions by 2060 (versus a 2019 baseline), Indonesia''s commitment to reversing this trend is crucial (Exhibit 2).
Notably, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), established during the G20 Leaders'' Summit in 2022, further signifies Indonesia''s commitment to delivering a just transition for the power sector.
In this article, we offer ten strategic initiatives that could help to speed up green growth in Indonesia, each of which could realize significant emissions reductions while maximizing economic value, job creation, and environmental protection. These encompass a wide range of activities and investments, from accelerating renewable energy adoption to developing innovative technologies in CCS. Together, they have the potential to position Indonesia at the forefront of the global fight against climate change.
Indonesia''s energy sector, including end use electricity and the industry''s thermal energy consumption, transport, and buildings, accounts for around a third of national emissions, with remaining emissions primarily coming from land use change (such as deforestation and peatland degradation), forestry, agriculture, and waste.
The government has implemented specific local content requirements for renewable energy projects.
To effectively scale up its renewable energy sector and meet its ambitious goals, Indonesia''s decision makers could look to develop a multifaceted strategy encompassing policy incentives, investment, technology transfer, and international collaboration.
In addition, the national grid will need to be adapted to handle the variability and decentralization of renewable energy sources, including developing and integrating energy storage technologies, as well as minimizing transmission and distribution losses.
The global transmission market, poised to reach $250 billion to $300 billion by 2030, is expanding rapidly, driven by factors that include rising energy demand, renewable energy integration, electrification of transport, and concerns over energy security.
Indonesia is also encouraging associated private investment in the electricity sector, with more than 60 percent of new capacity under RUPTL allocated to IPPs. The Indonesian government is working on improving the regulatory framework to facilitate these investments in the sector.
In addition, the government has initiated programs to extend electricity access to rural and remote areas. These efforts often involve small scale, off-grid solutions such as solar panels and microhydro plants, alongside the extension of the traditional grid network.
For Indonesia to accelerate strengthening and expanding its power grid, priority actions could include:
The transportation sector in Indonesia currently accounts for approximately 10 percent of total anthropogenic emissions. Under a business-as-usual scenario, these emissions are projected to more than double, rising from around 150 MtCO2 in 2020 to approximately 350 MtCO2 per year by 2050.
For Indonesia to realize the full potential of electric mobility, priority actions could include:
For Indonesia to realize its potential as a global battery manufacturing hub, priority actions could include:
High-quality carbon credits (or carbon offsets) are an increasingly important part of the net-zero toolkit for organizations, particularly within hard-to-abate, high-emitting sectors such as aviation, cement, steel, and oil and gas.
However, ensuring the long-term viability of the market for nature-based carbon credits involves creating a robust, transparent, and effective system where carbon credits can be reliably quantified, verified, and traded. Accurate accounting, as well as verification of permanence and additionality, are essential to opening this market.
Momentum for NBS in Indonesia is accelerating, and various initiatives are underway:
Ways that Indonesia could position itself as a leading NBS hub include:
Low-carbon transportation cannot be delivered through electrification alone. Green fuels also have a significant role to play, and Indonesia is well-positioned to contribute to this shift. As the largest producer of biodiesel globally, and with significant potential for producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Indonesia is poised to be a global biofuels player. This shift aligns with global trends and caters to growing demand, particularly from regions such as the European Union and North America.
Indonesia has taken several steps to increase its use of green fuels.
Biodiesel: The biodiesel blend mandate was increased to 35 percent nationwide in August 2023.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF): With around 50 percent of global palm oil mill effluent (POME) production, a key feedstock for SAF, Indonesia is exploring SAF as a major component in reducing aviation emissions. However, due to the high cost of production compared with other types of aviation fuel, financial support or incentives may be necessary to unlock the SAF market. In addition, the use of POME is subject to regulatory sensitivities around palm oil-based fuel, despite POME being a waste product. Therefore, it will be increasingly important to monitor the supply chain using accurate accounting and traceability approaches.
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