The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the support of the members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). Contact online >>
The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the support of the members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI).
Combining historical analysis with projections to 2030, the report examines key areas of interest such as electric vehicle and charging infrastructure deployment, battery demand, electricity consumption, oil displacement, greenhouse gas emissions and related policy developments. The report includes analysis of lessons learned from leading markets to inform policy makers and stakeholders about policy frameworks and market systems for electric vehicle adoption.
This edition features analysis of the financial performance of EV-related companies, venture capital investments in EV-related technologies, and trade of electric vehicles. Finally, the report makes available two online tools: the Global EV Data Explorer and Global EV Policy Explorer, which allow users to interactively explore EV statistics and projections, and policy measures worldwide.
This report is part of the IEA''s support of the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, which will be finalized in the run up to COP28, the next UN Climate Change Conference, at the end of 2023. Find other reports in this series on the IEA''sGlobal Energy Transitions Stocktakepage.
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Globally, the automotive future is looking increasingly electric, due to growing regulatory moves, including forthcoming bans on sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, shifting consumer behavior, and ongoing improvements in battery and charging technology. By 2035, the world''s major automotive markets—the United States, European Union, and China—are expected to sell only electric vehicles (EVs), and by 2050, 80 percent of the world''s vehicle sales are expected to be electric. EVs are a critical component of achieving climate neutrality (in Europe, for example, the life-cycle emissions of an EV are around 65 to 85 percent lower than that of an ICE vehicle) and improving quality of life in cities by reducing air and noise pollution.
This article seeks to answer two questions: How will the trend toward electric mobility play out in sub-Saharan Africa? What are the opportunities and challenges associated with the region''s electric transport future?1For the purposes of this article, sub-Saharan Africa refers to all countries on the African continent except those in North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia).
EVs typically refer to BEVs (battery electric vehicles) unless otherwise specified.
Range anxiety is the concern that a battery may lose charge while on the road without access to charging infrastructure.
Parc refers to the total stock of vehicles on the road.
Vehicle charging is divided into three levels:
Vans (or light commercial vehicles) are less than 3.5 tons, including panel vans, utility vans, and pickups.
Transport currently makes up 10 percent of Africa''s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is expected to increase in line with sub-Saharan Africa''s expanding vehicle parc (Exhibit 1). In the six countries that make up around 70 percent of sub-Saharan Africa''s annual vehicle sales and 45 percent of the region''s population (South Africa, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Nigeria), the vehicle parc is expected to grow from 25 million vehicles today to an estimated 58 million by 2040, driven by urbanization and rising incomes. As its vehicle parc grows, the challenge for sub-Saharan Africa will be to push for more sustainable mobility and avoid the risk of becoming the dumping ground for the world''s unwanted used ICE vehicles.
Some governments in sub-Saharan Africa have started to announce electrification targets for vehicles and incentives for EV adoption—such as Rwanda''s announced tax exemptions for EV sales. Moreover, a growing start-up ecosystem for EVs, focusing particularly on electric two-wheelers, is emerging in the region. McKinsey estimates that as of the end of 2021, there were more than 20 start-ups in the ecosystem, which combined raised over $25 million in funding that year.2Publicly announced funding only.
The second challenge is affordability, shaped by comparatively low household incomes, low availability of asset finance at affordable rates, and higher price points for EVs.
In this article, we look at some of the challenges and opportunities associated with sub-Saharan Africa''s electric transport journey, including some of the steps governments, development partners, and private-sector stakeholders can consider taking to build an enabling ecosystem for EVs in the region.
This McKinsey analysis focuses on smaller vehicle classes. The technology and ecosystem for the electrification of large, long-haul trucks are still being developed globally and are unlikely to scale to sub-Saharan Africa in the next 20 years.
Large buses have a case for electrification, with China and the European Union both setting targets for their adoption (electric buses are already widespread in many Chinese cities).1"The European electric bus market is charging ahead, but how will it develop?," McKinsey, July 2, 2018. However, as most large buses in sub-Saharan Africa are currently used for intercity transportation, often driving well above 100 km a day, they are, for now, unlikely candidates for electrification.
Minibuses remain the dominant form of urban public transportation. However, governments in sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly encouraging the use of large buses for urban public transport, which could impact the electrification potential and charging infrastructure required. For example, Kenya has stated that it will be encouraging the use of electric buses as part of the Nairobi Bus Rapid Transit system.2Hilary Kimuyu, "Kenya: Nairobi BRT lane is for electric buses only, says PS Hinga," AllAfrica, June 9, 2021.
This article''s findings indicate high awareness of EVs among drivers, a favorable total cost of ownership for EVs, and a growing use case for electric two-wheelers in particular, though up-front costs may stall the widespread uptake of EVs.
Awareness of EVs is high among passenger-car owners. Over 90 percent of all vehicle owners surveyed in Nigeria and Kenya had heard of EVs, with most recognizing that the technology is sound and better for the environment. However, almost all stated "range anxiety" (see sidebar "Common EV terminology") and high up-front costs as their primary concerns.
The total cost of ownership is favorable, but up-front costs are currently prohibitive. The total cost of ownership (TCO) of EVs is more favorable than that of ICE vehicles, even in countries with fairly high electricity costs like Kenya, where the residential electricity tariff is over 20 cents per kilowatt-hour (Exhibit 2). These economics improve the more a vehicle is driven due to the lower operating costs, meaning that vehicles used for commercial purposes (such as minibuses, vans, and two-wheelers) are more favorable for early transition. Despite high awareness of EVs, few individuals we surveyed understood the benefits, with some commercial fleet owners and bus associations expressing surprise at the favorable lifetime economics of EVs.
Driving behavior in Africa is suitable for EV adoption, with some exceptions. Understanding driving and parking behavior is critical to assessing the region''s potential for EV adoption. Vehicle owners who tend to drive less than 100 kilometers (km) per day and park in a dedicated space at home or at work can typically use basic Level 1 or Level 2 EV charging (see sidebar "Common EV terminology"). Most personal car owners in sub-Saharan Africa fit these criteria, even when factoring in time spent in traffic, as EVs are very efficient in start-stop conditions.
The picture becomes more complex, however, for taxis, minibuses, and vans that are in frequent use and travel long distances every day. Vehicles that travel more than 100 km a day with limited stops would require fairly high-cost Level 3 DC fast-charging infrastructure along major routes or at commercial centers. Short routes for minibuses and vans that park overnight at a fixed station may be more suitable for early EV adoption, where a wall charger can be installed with comparatively limited investment.
These factors strengthen the case for more widespread adoption of electric two-wheelers in sub-Saharan Africa, following the trend seen in Asia. A number of start-ups are already investing in the region''s nascent electric two-wheeler space to design vehicles at a cost and durability suitable for the local market. For example, Opibus in Kenya is investing in local R&D and assembly to build an electric motorcycle tailored to the needs of boda boda drivers who demand a high-durability vehicle that can go up to 130 km per day at a comparable cost to an ICE two-wheeler. Companies such as Ampersand in Rwanda are also developing a network of battery-swapping stations to enable two-wheeler drivers to exchange depleted batteries for fully charged batteries on the go.
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