New York recently adopted groundbreaking targets to decarbonize the state''s
As the nation moves toward decarbonization, it will be challenging to
Climate politics and policy are often characterized by symbolic goals and unattainable carbon reduction targets. This is nothing new in environmental policy. The 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act promised zero discharges of pollutants into our waterways in the act''s lofty statement of goals and then detailed the process for obtaining effluent discharge permits buried in the law''s fine print. Zero discharge was a dream. Still, the water is cleaner today than it was a half-century ago, and I suspect our carbon footprint will be lower in 2072 than in 2022. But it will take a long time to get there, and the question will always be: Is the glass half empty or half full?
In January of 2022, Colin Kinniburgh published a superb analysis inCity & Statemagazine of New York State''s current methods of power generation entitled "Smokestacks Loom Over New York''s Clean Energy Plan." According toKinniburgh:
The $15 billion annual cost ofdecarbonizationwould be paid by consumers and subsidized by federal and state government taxpayers. In the short run, the capital costs will be a strain as both capital and annual expenses increase while we both build new infrastructure and continue to pay for the fossil fuels used during the transition period. Ultimately, the end of fuel payments (the sun and wind are free of charge) should eventually reduce energy costs for New Yorkers. The devil will be in the details and the rate of transition. The transition must be carefully managed to ensure that energy supplies are not disrupted and costs are kept under control. That will likely mean that some goals, particularly the 2040 goal, might not be reached.
But they might. Because the wild card over the next two decades will be the development of new technology. If solar arrays become cheaper, smaller, and able to be deployed by people living in apartments, and if batteries become smaller and lower cost as well, many folks just might reduce or even eliminate their use of the electric grid. You might be skeptical, but there are plenty of recent examples of technological displacement. Many young people have never had a landline for their telephone. Many have cut connections with cable TV, and some no longer bother with wired connections to the internet. Electricity is more complicated, but it is easy to imagine breakthroughs that reduce demand on the grid.
Increased energy efficiency might also reduce power demand. The use ofheat pumps, increased insulation, more energy-efficient appliances, and more efficient light bulbs could impact our energy use. All of this could more than make up for increasing power requirements for electric vehicles, heat, and cooking.
The overall reality of decarbonization must be characterized as unpredictable. Still, there are some elements we can predict. Our daily use of energy will continue and it has become a vital daily necessity to modern lifestyles. The energy supply must be consistent and reliable, so we cannot decommission a fossil fuel plant until and unless we can replace its power with a renewable source. We can also predict that the capital cost of the energy transition will be high, but the operation and maintenance costs should go down as expensive fossil fuels are replaced by zero-cost renewable resources.
The symbolic politics of goals and targets have a value here but cannot be permitted to impair operational reality. Advocates need to be careful to ensure that energy supplies are not disrupted to meet carbon reduction goals. Ideological insistence on decommissioning power plants, while they are still needed, could undermine the entire effort to modernize the energy system.
While there is some danger of moving too fast, there is an equal danger of moving too slow. One effort being pushed by some utility players is to convert fossil-fuel-fired power plants to power plants fueled by biofuels or zero-emissions generators due to carbon capture and storage systems. If the capital cost of a gas-fired power plant has still not been fully recovered, or if a utility does not want to invest in solar or wind power, they might attempt to push this approach. A quiet attempt in the New York State legislature to redefine zero emissions was reported byColin Kinniburghin aCity & Statepiece last March, where he observed that the power industry proposed:
"to define "zero-emissions energy systems" as ones that do not result in a "net increase in greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere at any time in the process of generating electricity The technologies most likely to benefit from the bill all involve burning some kind of fuel, whether hydrogen, "renewable" natural gas, or simply fossil gas paired with carbon capture and storage."
This type of approach by utilities causes advocates to question their commitment to decarbonization. What both utilities and environmentalists need to do is to work harder to build consensus and trust, to avoid symbolism by environmentalists and sneaky indirection by industry, and work together on a realistic path to decarbonization. The process of reducing greenhouse gases and modernizing New York''s energy system will be difficult enough without a reflexive retreat to "we-they" politics. Let''s save that nonsense for the federal government and keep New York focused on a pragmatic, realistic path to reducing greenhouse gas pollution.
Views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Columbia Climate School, Earth Institute, or Columbia University.
Any reasonably objective observer of the energy business can see the desperate need for change in our energy system. In the past week or so, we''ve seen political instability threaten supplies of oil from the Mideast as Iran seized a British oil tanker. Here in New York City we saw a blackout last weekend on the west side of Manhattan and planned outages due to the heat wave in Brooklyn and Queens last night. And in a piece of good news, we can celebrate New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced agreement to build a major wind energy facility off of Long Island. According to the Wall Street Journal''s Jimmy Vielkind and Russell Gold:
"New York state officials on Thursday announced two new wind projects in the Atlantic Ocean totaling 1,700 megawatts—double the amount of generation capacity the state had been seeking and enough electricity to power 1 million homes. Equinor, a Norwegian company, will develop an 816-megawatt project 14 miles southeast of Manhattan. The Sunrise Wind project, a joint development of the Danish firm Ørsted A/S and Massachusetts-based Eversource Energy, will produce 880 megawatts in leased waters 30 miles east of Long Island A representative for the governor said the state is still negotiating final contracts with the companies, which will include total project costs and a specific rate of state subsidy."
As the recent blackout and smaller power outages during the weekend''s heatwave indicated, New York''s electric grid is old and in need of modernization. Microgrids knitted together into smartgrids should replace the early and mid-20th century system now in place. We waste enormous amounts of energy and our energy grid is too interconnected and vulnerable to interruption given our great dependence on energy in every aspect of our daily lives. A computer-controlled, but decentralized energy grid, would be more efficient and resilient than the current system. The issue is how do we pay for it? And how do we ensure that the investment in the grid is not destroyed by disruptive technologies?
The good news is that Governor Cuomo and his energy team understand all of this and are moving whenever they see an opportunity to modernize the energy system. I suspect that it wasn''t just his desire to show Bill de Blasio up or pick on Con Edison that prompted his criticism of Con Ed''s performance after the recent blackout and heatwave outages. It was an opportunity to focus the public''s attention on the need to invest in our energy system. It appears to me that he is attempting to connect the ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals he recently approved, to the operation of the state''s energy system.
While technological change is unpredictable, our growing need for energy is easy to predict. Its provision is as essential as water, sewage and waste removal and must at some level be seen as a public good that the government is responsible for assuring. Profitable but ethical relations with private firms in the energy business needs oversight and careful attention. The private sector plays a central role in New York''s energy system, and the state needs to keep these companies interested but also keep them honest.
Wind projects such as the ones that will soon be built in New York have an important role to play in changing our energy system. A more concerted effort to construct microgrids ought to also be considered. Energy saved is a form of revenue generation. The state must develop a means for utilities to monetize those savings and bring our electric grid out of the 20th century.
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