FIGURE 1. Concentration of carbon dioxide emissions between the year 1750 and 2020 (Lidsey, 2020).
FIGURE 2. Greenhouse gas contribution by economic sector (Boden et al., 2017; Lamb et al., 2021).
FIGURE 3. Changes in carbon dioxide concentration between 1970 and 2020 (Lindsey, 2021).
TABLE 1. Global warming potential for various substances/gases (MacLeod et al., 2011; Demirel and Demirel, 2014).
FIGURE 5. World total energy supply between 1971 and 2019 (United Nations, 2019a; International Energy Agency, 2021b).
FIGURE 6. World electricity generation by source for 2020 (BP, 2021).
FIGURE 7. The dimensions of sustainability and their interrelationships (Kolagar et al., 2020).
FIGURE 8. Dimensions of energy sustainability (Kabeyi, 2020a).
FIGURE 9. Planning for electricity sustainability.
TABLE 2. Increase in CO2 concentration between 1750 and 2018.
TABLE 3. The global electricity generation can be summarized in Table 3 below.
TABLE 4. The five dimensions of energy sustainability.
TABLE 5. Summary of energy options for the global transition.
TABLE 6. Summary of sustainable energy transition strategies.
Keywords: renewable energy, sustainable electricity, energy and electricity sustainability, energy transition, energy security, energy transition strategies, global climate change, greenhouse gas emissions
Citation: Kabeyi MJB and Olanrewaju OA (2022) Sustainable Energy Transition for Renewable and Low Carbon Grid Electricity Generation and Supply. Front. Energy Res. 9:743114. doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2021.743114
*Correspondence: Moses Jeremiah Barasa Kabeyi, bWthYmV5aUB1b25iaS5hYy5rZQ==, bW9zZXNrYWJleWlAeWFob28uY29t
The solar development in Manabí province marks a shift in land use from carbon-intensive to low-carbon energy production.
In December 2020, the "El Aromo" solar energy project was approved in coastal Manabí province, Ecuador. Operated by the Spanish company Solarpack, the project is expected to transform national solar output. El Aromo will occupy 2.9km2 of land that was previously cleared to build a multi-billion dollar oil refinery, plans that have since been abandoned. While El Aromo holds symbolic significance, it remains uncertain whether the project will mark a significant step toward more environmentally sustainable energy development in Ecuador.
The recent history of energy in Ecuador is dominated by oil–its central role in the country''s export economy as well as its devastating environmental impacts in Amazon regions, suffered by Indigenous groups in particular. While the country hosts high hydropower capacity and continues to build new hydroelectric plants, only recently has the government significantly expanded support for other low-carbon energy sources.
The country is poised to elect a new president next month, each candidate holding different views on energy development and gloChinazed neoliberal economics. The history and potential future of El Aromo will set an important precedent within the context of Ecuador''s apparent turn toward increased renewable generation. The lasting impacts of El Aromo will also depend on whether the development is successful enough to encourage government, industry, and society actors to support further national solar expansion.
Ecuador''s Energy Makeup
But forecasts anticipate change of a greater magnitude. Data analysis company GlobalData recently plotted an optimistic scenario for solar growth of 15 percent over the decade, taking the country''s PV generation from just 26.7MW in 2019 to 450MW by 2030, or more than 4GW if the global rate of solar growth continues to increase. These reports have fueled hope in the government and among international energy companies keen to capitalize on Ecuador''s solar potential. That would have the potential to radically alter Ecuador''s energy mix.
This means that many renewable energy projects are scheduled to come online under the next administration. Both Moreno and Solarpack executives have expressed confidence in the future of El Aromo. But analysts question how foreign investors will respond to potentially a changed relationship with the IMF following February''s election and how the new president will manage Ecuador''s fraught relationship with the Fund.
A previous IMF deal in March 2019 led Moreno to introduce austerity measures in October that year, including the elimination of long-standing gasoline subsidies. Overnight, the price of diesel more than doubled and the price of petrol increased by 30 percent. This resulted in weeks of protests that were met with police violence, including evidence of excessive force, killings, and arrests.
Ahead of the August 2020 IMF deal, Moreno''s government introduced new fuel subsidy reform in May. Hailed as historic by some analysts, the measures introduced monthly caps to prevent shock increases in retail prices. Met with less resistance than previous reforms, the cuts have been praised by the IMF for improving the "reliability and efficiency" of the energy sector. But opponents of the August 2020 IMF deal point to its similarity to past deals, requiring Ecuador to introduce austerity measures, cuts in public investment and wages, and new privatizations—all in the hope of attracting more foreign investment.
The three leading candidates have different views on the IMF. Pachakutik leader Yaku Pérez has refused to meet IMF officials, while conservative Guillermo Lasso is expected to comply with IMF loan conditions, despite his criticisms of the required tax increases. Meanwhile economist Andrés Arauz, chosen by Correa to lead the UNES political coalition and leading in some recent polls, is vocally opposed to the August 2020 IMF deal. He maintains Ecuador is not bound to the deal''s terms since it is not an international treaty, and proposes instead immediate increases in public spending, an end to privatization, and wealth tax reform.
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