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IEA (2024), What the data centre and AI boom could mean for the energy sector, IEA, Paris https://, Licence: CC BY 4.0
Investment in new data centres has surged over the past two years, driven by growing digitalisation and the uptake of artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to continue accelerating. Much of the spending is concentrated in the United States, where annual investment in data centre construction has doubled in the past two years alone, although other major economies, such as China and the European Union, are also witnessing an increase in activity. In 2023, overall capital investment by Google, Microsoft and Amazon, which are industry leaders in AI adoption and data centre installation, was higher than that of the entire US oil and gas industry – totalling around 0.5% of US GDP.
Average data centres are quite small in power terms, with demand in the order of 5-10 megawatts (MW). But large hyperscale data centres, which are increasingly common, have power demands of 100 MW or more, with an annual electricity consumption equivalent to the electricity demand from around 350000 to 400000 electric cars.
It is important to put this in perspective: Global sales of electric cars will reach 17 million in 2024. Today, data centres account for around 1% of global electricity consumption, and annual electricity consumption from data centres globally is about half of the electricity consumption from household IT appliances, like computers, phones and TVs. However, as the sector expands, it is important to examine the consequences for the energy sector, which we analysed in the 2024 edition of the IEA''s World Energy Outlook and will continue to explore in the months to come, including through a Special Report focused on energy and AI in the first half of 2025.
Additionally, data centres will be a key focus of the IEA''s forthcoming Global Conference on Energy & AI. The event, which will take place at our headquarters in Paris on 4-5 December, will bring together high-level decision makers from governments, the tech sector, the energy industry and civil society to discuss the ways in which AI could transform energy systems in the future.
In part because of expectations for AI, the next few years will see a substantial rise in the number and size of data centres. This growth will be partially mitigated by continued efficiency improvements at both the hardware and software level. Nonetheless, electricity demand from data centres is set to grow strongly to 2030 under today''s policies settings and trends.
However, when considered in a broader context of total electricity consumption growth globally, the contribution of data centres is modest. Global aggregate electricity demand grows by 6 750 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030 in our Stated Policies Scenario, equivalent to more than the combined demand from the United States and European Union today. While growing digitalisation, including the rise of AI, is one factor, continued economic growth, electric vehicles, air conditioners and the rising importance of electricity-intensive manufacturing are all bigger drivers.
In large economies like the United States, China and the European Union, data centres account for around 2-4% of total electricity consumption today. But because they tend to be spatially concentrated, their local impact can be pronounced. The sector has already surpassed 10% of electricity consumption in at least five US states. In Ireland, it now accounts for over 20% of all electricity consumption.
For comparison, large data centres can have a power demand equivalent to that of an electric arc furnace steel mill. However, steel plants are less likely to be clustered in the same geographic area.
The growth of data centres could therefore lead to considerable strain on local power networks, exacerbated by the huge mismatch between rapid data centre construction times and the often sluggish pace of expanding and strengthening grids and generation capacity. There have already been instances of jurisdictions pausing new contracts for data centres due to a surge of requests. For regions or countries that are particularly affected, rising electricity consumption from data centres could make meeting their climate targets more difficult.
With the role of data centres in the electricity system set to increase, it is important that policymakers and regulators have the tools to understand this new driver of demand growth. A number of key variables merit further discussion and analysis.
Firstly, the speed and manner in which AI use will grow remains fundamentally uncertain. Early data suggests that household adoption is rapid – perhaps faster than with other transformative digital technologies. But which uses of AI become popular over time, among both households and businesses, will have implications for energy demand. For example, video generation is far more energy-intensive than text generation or AI-enabled search. The future direction of AI model development matters, too, since some approaches consume significantly more energy than others. The financial returns from AI applications could also affect data centre investment trends, since current spending is tied to expectations on profitability in the future.
Secondly, the outlook for continued efficiency improvements in both hardware and software needs to be better understood. The efficiency of AI-related computer chips has doubled roughly every two-and-a-half to three years, and a modern AI-related computer chip uses 99% less power to perform the same calculations as a model from 2008. New cooling technologies are being developed, and AI models themselves are becoming more efficient. At the same time, the operational and energy performance of data centres is relatively opaque, making demand estimates difficult. Efforts are underway to improve transparency in some jurisdictions.
Thirdly, more effort is needed to understand the physical constraints on demand growth. Understanding of the data centre project pipeline is limited, and data is not readily available. Meanwhile, chip production may present a near-term bottleneck. The energy sector itself may slow down the growth of AI, if generation and grid capacity is not available in the places it is most needed.
Finally, the impact of AI applications in the energy sector more broadly needs to be fully assessed. Promising examples include accelerating breakthroughs in clean energy innovation, managing the electricity system to facilitate more renewables, and deploying AI to enhance the profitability and speed of electrification programmes in developing economies. These applications could potentially transform energy systems, but today, their impacts, enabling conditions and scalability are not well known.
Overall, there is an urgent need for public-private dialogue, with policymakers, the tech sector and the energy industry coming together for discussions. The promises of AI are real – not least for clean energy innovation. But delivering responsible AI will require new partnerships to quickly emerge. The upcoming Global Conference on Energy & AI aims to provide a space to kickstart and advance these conversations.
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On average, a ChatGPT query needs nearly 10 times as much electricity to process as a Google search. In that difference lies a coming sea change in how the US, Europe, and the world at large will consume power — and how much that will cost.
For years, data centers displayed a remarkably stable appetite for power, even as their workloads mounted. Now, as the pace of efficiency gains in electricity use slows and the AI revolution gathers steam, Goldman Sachs Research estimates that data center power demand will grow 160% by 2030.
At present, data centers worldwide consume 1-2% of overall power, but this percentage will likely rise to 3-4% by the end of the decade. In the US and Europe, this increased demand will help drive the kind of electricity growth that hasn''t been seen in a generation. Along the way, the carbon dioxide emissions of data centers may more than double between 2022 and 2030.
In a series of three reports, Goldman Sachs Research analysts lay out the US, European, and global implications of this spike in electricity demand. It isn''t that our demand for data has been meager in the recent past. In fact, data center workloads nearly tripled between 2015 and 2019. Through that period, though, data centers'' demand for power remained flattish, at about 200 terawatt-hours per year. In part, this was because data centers kept growing more efficient in how they used the power they drew, according to the Goldman Sachs Research reports, led by Carly Davenport, Alberto Gandolfi, and Brian Singer.
But since 2020, the efficiency gains appear to have dwindled, and the power consumed by data centers has risen. Some AI innovations will boost computing speed faster than they ramp up their electricity use, but the widening use of AI will still imply an increase in the technology''s consumption of power. A single ChatGPT query requires 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, compared with 0.3 watt-hours for a Google search, according to the International Energy Agency. Goldman Sachs Research estimates the overall increase in data center power consumption from AI to be on the order of 200 terawatt-hours per year between 2023 and 2030. By 2028, our analysts expect AI to represent about 19% of data center power demand.
In tandem, the expected rise of data center carbon dioxide emissions will represent a "social cost" of $125-140 billion (at present value), our analysts believe. "Conversations with technology companies indicate continued confidence in driving down energy intensity but less confidence in meeting absolute emissions forecasts on account of rising demand," they write. They expect substantial investments by tech firms to underwrite new renewables and commercialize emerging nuclear generation capabilities. And AI may also provide benefits by accelerating innovation — for example, in health care, agriculture, education, or in emissions-reducing energy efficiencies.
Over the last decade, US power demand growth has been roughly zero, even though the population and its economic activity have increased. Efficiencies have helped; one example is the LED light, which drives lower power use. But that is set to change. Between 2022 and 2030, the demand for power will rise roughly 2.4%, Goldman Sachs Research estimates — and around 0.9 percent points of that figure will be tied to data centers.
That kind of spike in power demand hasn''t been seen in the US since the early years of this century. It will be stoked partly by electrification and industrial reshoring, but also by AI. Data centers will use 8% of US power by 2030, compared with 3% in 2022.
US utilities will need to invest around $50 billion in new generation capacity just to support data centers alone. In addition, our analysts expect incremental data center power consumption in the US will drive around 3.3 billion cubic feet per day of new natural gas demand by 2030, which will require new pipeline capacity to be built.
Over the past 15 years, Europe''s power demand has been severely hit by a sequence of shocks: the global financial crisis, the covid pandemic, and the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine. But it has also suffered due to a slower-than-expected pick up in electrification and the ongoing de-industrialization of the European economy. As a result, since a 2008 peak, electricity demand has cumulatively declined by nearly 10%.
Going forward, between 2023 and 2033, thanks to both the expansion of data centers and an acceleration of electrification, Europe''s power demand could grow by 40% and perhaps even 50%, according to Goldman Sachs Research. At the moment, around 15% of the world''s data centers are located in Europe. By 2030, the power needs of these data centers will match the current total consumption of Portugal, Greece, and the Netherlands combined.
Data center power demand will rise in two kinds of European countries, our analysts write. The first sort is those with cheap and abundant power from nuclear, hydro, wind, or solar sources, such as the Nordic nations, Spain and France. The second kind will include countries with large financial services and tech companies, which offer tax breaks or other incentives to attract data centers. The latter category includes Germany, the UK, and Ireland.
Europe has the oldest power grid in the world, so keeping new data centers electrified will require more investment. Our analysts expect nearly €800 billion ($861 billion) in spending on transmission and distribution over the coming decade, as well as nearly €850 billion in investment on solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind energy.
This article is being provided for educational purposes only. The information contained in this article does not constitute a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the recipient, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, investment, accounting, or tax advice through this article or to its recipient. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this article and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.
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