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Bulgaria''s power sector is diverse and well developed, with universal access to the grid and numerous cross-border connections in neighboring countries. A key driver of the Bulgarian economy, the energy sector is strongly affected by geopolitical, economic, and regulatory pressures. The Bulgarian electricity market is in transition, but nuclear power is expected to retain its large share of generation capacities. The government intends to decrease its coal power capacity to gradually replace it with renewable power capacity. During this energy shift, the government plans to rely on nuclear power generation to meet a significant portion of electricity demand.
In 2022, the amount of electricity produced increased by 5.7% compared to the previous year. This growth comes from the increase in electricity generated by thermal power plants and renewable energy sources (RES). Among RES, the biggest increase was in photo voltaic (PV), generating 33% more electricity than in 2021. The reasons are an increase in the installed capacities of PV and more sunshine hours in 2022. In the past year, the export of electricity reached record levels of 12.2 TWh, which is an increase of 39% compared to the previous year, ranking Bulgaria third among the largest exporters of electricity in the European Union.
Electricity production capacities meet consumer demand in Bulgaria and enable exports to neighboring markets. In 2022, the Bulgarian energy industry exported more than 12 TWh of electricity totaling to EUR 3 billion, (USD 3.24 billion). Currently, the installed power generation capacity in Bulgaria is 13.247 MW, and the available capacity is 10,771 MW.
To support its energy needs, Bulgaria imports natural gas, oil and oil products, and solid fuels (anthracite and black coal, coal coke). The main local energy source in Bulgaria is lignite coal. Another local energy source is nuclear energy, which significantly contributes to energy independence. In 2022, the share of nuclear energy production is 32.6% of total electricity production in Bulgaria. The share is expected to remain above 40% until 2030. The reduction of fossil fuel imports into Bulgaria entails an increased need for energy production from renewable sources.
By the end of 2024, Bulgaria''s Electricity System Operator (ESO) will finalize its investment programaiming to ensure the grid connection of new power plants with a total installed capacity of 4,500 MW, primarily renewables.
ESO, the country''s transmission system operator, has invested more than EUR 25 million in digitalization of the grid. Modernization and digitalization of the medium-voltage grid is expected to be completed by 2024.
Power interconnectivity in the region has just made another important step forward with the completion of the second cross-border transmission line between Greece and Bulgaria.
Greece''s Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) announced in July 2023 that the new international ultra-high voltage, 400 kV electrical interconnection is operational. The total length of the international interconnection, which starts from Nea Santa EHVC in Rhodopi and ends at Maritsa East Substation in Bulgaria, is 151 km, of which some 30 km is within Greek territory. Its capacity reaches 2 GW.
Bulgaria''s recovery and resilience plan calls for deployment of a minimum of 1.4 GW of renewable energy with storage in Bulgaria, including an investment in renewable and storage facilities that will be financed by EUR 342 million from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) (33 per cent) and EUR 684 million from private funding (67 per cent).
The plan includes significant investments to accelerate decarbonization of the energy sector, tripling power generation from renewables by 2026, building large electricity storage capacity, cutting power sector greenhouse emissions 40 per cent by 2025, and setting out a framework for a coal phase-out. However, in January 2023, the Bulgarian Parliament voted to scrap interim coal-reduction commitments from the Recovery Plan and keep its entire coal fleet online until 2038, despite the risk of losing almost EUR 1 billion for energy sector modernization. The RRF is to be renegotiated with the European Commission to keep the coal industry on life support as long as possible.
Due to delays in ongoing repair projects and regulatory inconsistencies, Bulgaria uses only one-third of its large, pumped-storage hydro power plants (HPPs) and even less of smaller run-of-the-river plants. In times of rising prices and shortages of electricity supply, HPPs could ease pressure on the system and offer cheaper electricity during periods of peak consumption.
However, if a more modern solution is sought to support storage technologies, it would be more efficient to invest in development of battery systems that can be used freely by all participants in the electricity market. Such a solution was proposed in the latest version of the national Recovery Plan, but on a scale that would be difficult to implement in a short timeframe.
It makes more sense to support storage systems for small and medium-sized businesses, which can reduce their dependence on the grid and hence improve performance at peak consumption. Support measures aimed at industrial consumers are included in the Recovery plan. However, the proposed financing scheme for RES installations up to 1 MW would also lead to the non-utilization of a large part of existing market potential.
Distribution of electricity generation in Bulgaria in 2022, by source
Coal energy was the main source of electricity production in Bulgaria in 2022. It accounted for over 45 percent of total electricity generation. Nuclear energy ranked second, making up 35 percent of total production.
As Russia''s invasion of Ukraine sent shock waves across Europe, Southeast Europe (SEE) is bracing to bear the brunt of the economic, financial, and security consequences. The region is heavily reliant on Russian gas and oil, and for regular supply Russia is a major trading partner and investor. The sanctions on Russia and the indirect consequences of higherenergyand raw material prices and supply chain disruptions are expected to impact businesses across the board, curbing production, further fuelling inflation and slowing recovery.
Bulgaria''s energy market is dominated by state-owned players, which include:
Bulgaria''s energy generation includes nuclear energy, solid fuels, such as lignite, as well as small quantities of gas. The role of renewable energy sources (wind, solar, biomass, and hydro) has increased dramatically in recent years.
The regulated Bulgarian electricity market is dominated by a few major players that have built a supply monopoly. undertaking, there is no real competition in the distribution market that could enable consumers to choose their supplier, as there is only one licensed supplier in each geographical region. Bulgaria''s energy intensity is among the highest in the EU. The country is reducing its dependence on imported fuels from Russia, and, at the same time, is attempting to develop itself as an energy hub.
Thermal power plants were encouraged in Bulgaria in the early 2000s as Kozloduy NPP units were being closed. Today there is a thermal power plant complex (TPP), known as the Maritza Iztok Mining complex, which consists of three lignite-fired thermal power plants (TPPs) known as: Maritza East 1 (ME-1), a 686-MW U.S.-built plant, owned and operated by AES Corporation; Maritza East 2 (ME-2), a 1,610-MW state-owned plant; and Maritza East (ME-3), a 908-MW plant owned by the U.S. company Contour Global. Other TPPs exist throughout the country.
In 2022, in Bulgaria''s electricity production reached 50.6 TWh. The generation structure in 2022 was dominated by coal-fired thermal power plants, followed by the Kozloduy nuclear power plant and hydroelectric plants, with the percentage distribution by plant type shown in the figure below.
Bulgaria''s energy sector priorities are:
Bulgaria needs to continue the process of developing infrastructure that allows the procurement of energy resources (especially gas) from other sources. Examples already underway include the construction of a gas interconnector between Bulgaria and Serbia, and a Bulgarian-Turkish agreement on access to regasification capacities in LNG terminals in Turkey.
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