Increased renewable energy penetration buenos aires
This chapter was funded by Project PICT 2019-02608 "Approximations to the relations between energy models and industrial policy in Argentina, 2002–2019," National Agency for the Promotion of Research, Technological Development and Innovation, Argentina. https:// Contact online >>
This chapter was funded by Project PICT 2019-02608 "Approximations to the relations between energy models and industrial policy in Argentina, 2002–2019," National Agency for the Promotion of Research, Technological Development and Innovation, Argentina. https://
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Countries with low relative population or net hydrocarbon exporters were left out.
All reports by Argentina are available at https://unfccc t/BURs
As Serrani and Barrera point out, the energy sector''s contribution to the emergence of the current account deficit between 2006 and 2014 is 81%, while if the analysis is focused only on commodities, the energy contribution to the fall of the existing surplus reached 159% (Serrani & Barrera, <CitationRef CitationID="CR41" >2018</Citation Ref>, p. 138).
The main reference is to the adoption of the so-called barril criollo (local oil barrel), which, until 2017, guaranteed an oil price in the domestic market higher than the international one, as well as the creation of the "Plan Gas," which paid the producers 7.5 U$S/MBTU for the gas above the "base" production, adjusted according to a "decline" rate foreseen for each company. The difference between the price received for sales to transporters and the 7.5 dollars was covered by the state (Arceo, <CitationRef CitationID="CR2" >2018</Citation Ref>; Barrera, <CitationRef CitationID="CR5" >2021b</Citation Ref>; Serrani, <CitationRef CitationID="CR39" >2019</Citation Ref>).
This data arises from valuing the production of unconventional oil and gas by the import price, assuming that, given the decline in extraction, any additional production replaces external purchases.
According to studies carried out, in the best of the scenarios presented publicly by officials of the National State, both from the Secretary of Energy and the Ministry of Productive Development, by the midterm this positive balance could reach between USD 35 billion and 48 billion net per year of exports of the resource (Iguacel, <CitationRef CitationID="CR25" >2018</Citation Ref>; Kulfas, <CitationRef CitationID="CR29" >2019</Citation Ref>). In 2019, the country''s total exports reached USD 65 billion.
In 2022, they are still under construction with an expected completion date between 2024 and 2028, depending on the plant.
The developers of renewable energy projects themselves expressed in the media that the economic crisis had brought interest rates to levels incompatible with investment: "Con este riesgo país (EMBI) es imposible conseguir financiamiento privado por debajo del 14%" [With this country risk (EMBI), it is impossible to obtain private financing below 14%] (Bellato, 2018). Moreover, the doubling of the interest rate was combined with the restriction of access to foreign currency to pay suppliers, due to the lack of dollars in the Central Bank, all of which caused difficulties for the initial financial structure of the projects (Santamaría, 2019).
At the time of this writing, late April 2022, the Argentine government reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was ratified in Parliament. However, a large part of the agreement involves a refinancing of the debt and the taking of a new loan to repay it. In this sense, having reached a new agreement with the IMF, although it avoids default, it does not imply that in the political-economic scenario that is opening up, Argentina will again have external financing amounts equivalent to those of the 2016–2018 period.
Argentina has a wind load factor above 50% and PV above 30% (Genneia, <CitationRef CitationID="CR20" >2020a</Citation Ref>, <CitationRef CitationID="CR21" >b</Citation Ref>).
The thickness and acreage of the Vaca Muerta platform has better characteristics than that of US players. While Vaca Muerta has a thickness of up to 450 meters, the Permian, one of the main formations, ranges between 200 m and 300 m. Likewise, the report details that the breakeven is between USD 40 and 50/barrel and USD 3.5/MMBTU in natural gas in 2018, with well drilling, development, and OPEX costs reduced by 50–60% since 2015. Indeed, these elements make Vaca Muerta the second biggest platform in unconventional gas resources and fourth in oil in the world (EIA, <CitationRef CitationID="CR14" >2013</Citation Ref>; Iguacel, <CitationRef CitationID="CR25" >2018</Citation Ref>).
To this assumption it can be added that there is infrastructure to transport surplus production in the first stage and, at present, investments are already being made to expand the capacity to transport oil to the external market.
Unlike oil, in the case of natural gas, it is necessary to build a new pipeline to transport the additional production, which is currently under bidding, and according to official information from the Ministry of Energy, it is estimated that it will begin its first operational stage in 2023.
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Tests had found the so-called capacity factor — average output relative to capacity — of the proposed 100MW Mario Cebreiro wind park, near the port of Bahia Blanca in southern Buenos Aires province, was 47.5 per cent. That was high for wind parks globally and it helped Luft and its partner in the project, Pampa Energía, one of Argentina''s leading independent energy companies, to secure financing for the project.
Yet when the wind farm was put into operation, Ms Capurro says, she was surprised that the capacity factor was 49 per cent. "Argentina is blessed with very competitive [sustainable] natural resources," she says.
Certainly, Argentina''s winds bend the trees in Patagonia and lure kite surfers to its beaches. In the arid north-west, meanwhile, the sun scorches the earth.
All of this has attracted companies to participate in tenders called by President Mauricio Macri''s government to meet 20 per cent of electricity demand from renewable sources by 2025. Enough tenders have been given the go-ahead to supply about 15 per cent of demand potentially, up from nearly 2 per cent this year, says Maximiliano Morrone, the national government''s director of renewable energy promotion.
He says one driver of such interest is the size of the Argentine market for electricity — the third biggest in Latin America after Brazil and Mexico. Another is the high output potential of wind and solar parks.
Mr Morrone says the average Argentine capacity factor for wind parks is 50 per cent. This is nearly twice the average in Denmark, which gets 40 per cent of its power from the wind, according to data from Brussels-based WindEurope. Argentine solar power parks stand to generate two to three times more output than those in Germany, a leader in European solar power, Mr Morrone adds.
With such potential, Ms Capurro says that it will be years, rather than decades, before Argentina will generate 50 per cent of its electricity from renewables.
This was hard to imagine during the past decade. In Argentina, under the former Kirchner-Fernandez governments, economic and regulatory volatility, including capital controls and fears of private asset confiscation, kept investment away. Meanwhile, wind and solar park construction boomed in much of the world.
Under Mr Macri, Argentina''s late entry into the worldwide movement to build wind and solar parks has had its benefits. The years of under-investment have left room for growth and the chance to capitalise on recent advances.
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