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China uneasily straddles both sides of the energy transition. On the one hand, China is indisputably a world leader in numerous clean energy technologies, including electric vehicles, renewable generation, and supply chains. On the other hand, it is also the world''s largest carbon emitter and coal producer, and is constructing over half of the world''s new coal-powered electricity plants. With Western-China tensions rising and Beijing increasingly focused on energy security, there is a shrinking scope for climate cooperation. Perversely, however, US-China political competition could deliver climate benefits, as both sides will face pressure to provide clean energy leadership at COP27 and beyond.
China suffers from significant energy security challenges. The world''s largest or second-largest country by population has massive energy needs, while domestic energy supplies are constrained by geology, energy density, and, often, bad policymaking. China''s water deficiencies not only limit its ability to use shale techniques to extract oil and natural gas but also pose growing risks to hydropower electricity generation, which comprised 16 percent of its power mix in 2021. Over time, low water levels on Chinese rivers could lead to severe problems in other water-intensive electricity generators such as nuclear power, natural gas, and coal. These problems are somewhat distant for now, however, as China has turned to coal for its immediate energy security needs.
The Australia-China spat illustrates Beijing''s often contradictory climate relations with the West. Both sides are interconnected via supply chains and commodity trade: China is firmly established in wind and solar supply chains and processes most of the active materials needed in lithium-ion batteries for grid storage and electric vehicles. Moreover, China imports substantial volumes of crude oil, liquefied petroleum products such as ethane and propane, and LNG from the United States and other Western countries. On the other hand, political tensions between the two sides over Taiwan, semiconductors, and more is bleeding into climate cooperation.
China suspended climate talks with the United States in August, including on methane reduction, after US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Meanwhile, a bill introduced before the US Senate would remove China from the list of developing countries, preventing it from securing favorable treatment in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) markets.
These political and climate disputes could peak at COP27 over the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Europe''s adoption of CBAM seeks to reduce carbon emissions by levying fees in proportion to the carbon intensity of the imported product. This measure would significantly raise the costs of Chinese goods exports to Europe and provide a template for other industrialized countries, such as the United States, Japan, and Canada. China firmly opposes this measure, calling it a "green barrier."
Not only will this dynamic unfold as a competition between economies in China and the West, but as a paradigm of global engagement and investment on climate mitigation and adaptation, particularly with respect to engagement with the developing world. For instance, in Africa, China''s trade volumes exceeded the United States'' by a factor of four. Moreover, China has not shied away from financing fossil fuel projects that rank high on the priority list of less developed countries with limited energy access. This has been welcomed by many African nations, as 43 percent of all people on the continent do not have access to modern energy services.
As the developing and developed world seek to resolve key issues on the agenda at COP27 such as loss and damages, closing the climate finance gap, and financing for natural gas projects in Africa, Western leaders will need to keep in mind that competition with China is likely to become a more prominent feature of climate negotiations.
After all, despite present reliance on coal and other fossil fuels, China has historically viewed the energy transition as a strategic advantage. The opportunity to decouple from globalized supply chains for fossil fuels, on which it is nearly entirely reliant on imports, and transition to an infrastructure and materials-intensive clean energy economy leverages its strengths in industrial policy and manufacturing.
Policymakers in Washington, Brussels and beyond should utilize a more flexible and pragmatic approach in their engagement with the developing world and consider using trade agencies to assist with short-term natural gas project finance and accelerated clean energy project finance, taking the best of both camps'' models of international climate engagement.
Most importantly, Western countries should get their own acts together on climate. Securing clean energy supply chains, improving energy efficiency, and increasing domestic hydrocarbon production when needed should all be important elements in the West’s climate strategy. By asserting climate leadership through the power of its own actions and accommodating the real needs of developing countries, the West can drive emissions reductions while laying down a marker in the climate competition with Beijing.
Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.
William Tobin is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.
Europe’s recent energy policies have begotten accusations of climate hypocrisy, as the continent blocks access to financing for gas projects in developing countries yet scours those countries for gas supplies for its own use. At COP27, Europe can—and should—responsibly reconcile those contradictions.
COP27 will place the issue of climate finance front and center. The need to provide adequate support for developing nations beset by climate-related hardship and pursuing transition policies cannot be overstated.
As the United States, Russia, and China move into a period of overt confrontation, competition in both the current and next-generation nuclear technology spaces will assume even more importance. Climate concerns only add more urgency to the race to deploy.
The Global Energy Center develops and promotes pragmatic and nonpartisan policy solutions designed to advance global energy security, enhance economic opportunity, and accelerate pathways to net-zero emissions.
© 2024 Atlantic CouncilAll rights reserved.
Energy has been a main stay and driving force for the progress of human civilization, as well as an important basis for the development of the national economy.
A hard beginning before the founding of the People''s Republic of China in 1949 created a great amount of pressure on the pioneers of New China. Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, through generations of hard work, from small to large, from weak to strong, China''s coal, petroleum, electric power and many other energy industries have undergone earth-shaking changes. Great achievements have been made and attracted worldwide attention.
From simple and backward coal mines to the construction of largescale modern smart coal mines, skilled professionals in the coal production industry have continuously overcome difficulties and achieved leapfrog development.
China''s coal production has increased from 32 million tons at the beginning of New China to 3.68 billion tons in 2018, a net increase by 114 times. Coal supply has changed from a severe shortage to an overall surplus of production capacity, and maintained an overall balance between supply and demand.
In 1949, the national annual output of crude oil was only 120,000 tons. With the discovery of the first Karamay oilfield, the completion of the first natural oil base Yumen Oil Mine, and the rise of Daqing oilfield, a historic breakthrough was made in petroleum exploration and development.
China not only became self-sufficient in oil but also astonishingly emerged as a major oil producer and exporter. Blue Whale No 1 represents the highest design and construction level of offshore drilling rigs in the world today, allowing China''s deep-water oil and gas exploration capabilities to leapfrog to the world''s advanced ranks.
Since the founding of New China, electricity consumption has increased by 1,900 times; per capita electricity consumption has increased by 630 times; power generation has increased by 1,600 times; installed power generation capacity has increased by 1,000 times; power grid lines have increased by 280 times, and voltage levels have increased by five times.
The international cooperation of electric power is advancing steadily, and the development of China''s power industry has provided a reliable power guarantee for the rapid development of China''s economy in the past 70 years.
The West-East Gas Pipeline Project, approved during the first meeting of the State Council in February 2000, is the longest and largest caliber gas pipeline in China, and it is the second largest national project behind the Three Gorges Dam project of the Yangtze River. The construction is a landmark project that kicked off China''s ambitious Western Region Development plan.
After 70 years of rapid development, China''s energy production has gradually changed from weak to strong, and its production capacity and level have been greatly improved. China has become the world''s largest energy production power and has basically formed a multi-wheel drive for coal, oil, gas, and renewable energy.
After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, in face of the comprehensive development of the global energy industry and the profound adjustment of the industry structure, President Xi Jinping proposed a new energy security strategy, namely, Four Reforms and One Cooperation, indicating the new path for China''s energy industry in the new era.
The State Power Investment Corporation has formulated its "2035 First-Class Strategy" for future development to accelerate the transition from a traditional integrated energy company to a clean and low-carbon energy company based on water, wind, solar and nuclear power.
China''s new energy industry is developing rapidly, and it has become the world''s largest country in the development and utilization of wind power and solar photovoltaic power. New energy has become the most dazzling bright spot, reshaping China''s future energy structure.
Being a country that depends heavily on foreign petroleum import for both domestic consumption and as raw materials for light industry manufacturing, electrification is a huge component of the Chinese national energy policy.
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