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Received 2021 Oct 15; Accepted 2022 Jun 13; Issue date 2023 Feb.
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Keywords: Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide, end-of-life, material flow analysis, global distribution
Sales of BEVs and NMC and change in NMC battery size in 2010–2019.
BEVs: battery electric vehicles; NMC: Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxidebatteries.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Next section describes themethodology applied in this research. The results are presented in Section ''Resultsand Discussion'', followed by the discussion in the next section. Final sectionconcludes this study with future recommendations.
The average battery size of BEVs entering the global market is estimated based onprevious trends, as well as future technological advancements that can affectthe overall weight of the battery. The total number of BEVs in a certain yearwas multiplied by the battery size of the EV model, and then the total number ofmodels was divided by the total number of sales to provide the average NMCbattery size for the top 10 countries, including the other countries, as shownin Table 1. Thevalues given in Table1 are selected based on the published literature.
BEVs: battery electric vehicles; NMC: Lithium nickel manganese cobaltoxide batteries.
Materials bills for the NMC battery pack (39 kWh) in a BEV (Based onRicha,2016).
BEVs: battery electric vehicles; NMC: Lithium nickel manganese cobaltoxide.
The lifespan of BEVs LIBs is a vital factor for estimating the EOL batteryvolume. This is because BEV battery depends on the number of factors whichincludes battery capacity and degradation, material use and battery developmenttechnology and usage condition (i.e. road conditions and recharging frequency)(Qiao et al.,2020). Presently, the average lifespan is 10–15 years, while themanufacturer''s warranty lifespan is 8–10 years (California Air Resources Board, 2019).Thanks to technological advancements, the future lifespan of LIBs will increaseup to 15 years; therefore, this study also assumed a higher lifespan of 15 yearsfor NMC batteries from 2028 to 2030 (Ziemann et al., 2018).
Several factors such as battery recharging frequency and road conditions directlyaffect the actual lifespan of LIBs and therefore, a Weibull life distributionmodel with a dynamic lifespan is assumed based on the previously published study(Ai et al.,2019). A Weibull distribution is selected by assuming the dynamic batterylifespans to simulate the battery life distribution and anticipate thegeneration of e-waste. This Weibull distribution model was chosen to estate thescrappages of NMC batteries globally. The two parameters withF(t) denoting the battery lifedistribution function, as shown in equation (1).
In equation(1), β is the scale parameter, t is the year, whichis equal to the average life of the battery, and α is the shape parameter with avalue of 3.5 (Ai et al.,2019; Wu et al.,2020).
To assess the accuracy of the results, this research considered the averagelifespan of NMC batteries from 2009 to 2014, 2015 to 2020, 2021 to 2024, 2025 to2027 and 2028 to 2030 to be 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 years, respectively. Figure 3 shows thepercentage of NMC batteries with different average lifespans reaching theirEOL.
Lifespan distribution of NMC batteries.
In this study, Stanford model was selected to forecast the global NMC batteryretirement from 2010 to 2030 (Shafique et al., 2022; Song et al., 2016).The Stanford model is a useful tool to accurately predict batteries'' internalsystems in real time by considering the technological improvements that canfurther prolong the battery life. Therefore, to estimate the future EOL of NMCbatteries in a more realistic way, this study uses this model for analysis. Thequantities of different materials of NMC batteries reaching EOL were calculatedfrom 2010 to 2030 using this model in the study. The Stanford method used tocalculate the EOL of batteries is expressed as equation (2).
is the estimated waste volume for materialk; is the Weibull probability function value atith year with a maximum lifetime ofn, calculated using equation (2); is the NMC in-use stock for each materialk, i years ago; and n is the maximumlifetime.
To estimate the amount of constituting materials (i.e. Al, Li, Cu), the share ofcathode type must be known. Therefore, the focus is on NMC batteries withcathode types NMC 622, NMC 111, NMC 811, NMC 422, NMC 532, NMC 523, NMC 721 andNMC 442 with varying weight shares, as used by most automakers (Li et al., 2018). Themarket share for each cathode type was estimated according to the capacity ofLIBs entering the global market. The future development of NMC batteries wasbased on new EV models and future sales projections until 2030. The presentstudy further assessed the recovery potential of NMC battery materials in thetop 10 countries, including other countries around the globe. Using equation(2), the quantities of recovered NMC battery materials werecalculated during the analysis.
As we know, the estimation of recovery of LIB materials from the used LIBs isstill in initial stage on the commercial scale. However, various laboratorystudies indicated that the larger proportion of materials could be obtainedthrough advanced technologies. Therefore, for this study, we assume the previousstudy recovery rates for different NMC battery materials (Li et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2020). With the recoveryrate as shown in Table3, we predicted the recoverable materials from NMC batteries from2010 to 2030. Finally, the remaining parts of materials which could be notrecovered is designated as waste flow in the current study.
Recovery rate and economic value of significant materials in NMCbatteries (Wu etal., 2020; Shafique et al., 2022).
NMC: nickel manganese cobalt.
The advantages of LIB batteries are their low cost, long lifespan, higher safetyand stability for recovery (Yun et al., 2018). The recovery process helps recover the materialsat the EOL for use in other applications. After retirement, EV batteries canstill be utilized for energy storage in household applications. These batteriesare recovered mostly in China and have a certain monetary value, as shown inTable 3 (Brückner et al., 2020;Wu et al.,2020). This study also assessed the economic value of the recoverablematerials.
According to historical growth rates and future policies regarding EV adoption,global NMC battery sales from 2019 to 2030 are estimated and summarized inSupplemental Table S2. Sales are expected to increase from 1.53 million in 2019to 15.05 million in 2030. After 2025, there was a higher increase until 2030.The full detail of NMC batteries each year is shown in Figure 4.
Two aspects are presented here. First, the annual in-use stocks of NMC batterymaterials (aluminium, copper, lithium, steel, graphite/carbon and manganese) forthe top 10 countries. Second, the materials'' recycling potential and waste flowfrom 2010 to 2038.
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