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Lusaka-based Africa GreenCo has been awarded a US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) grant for a feasibility study to expand its battery energy storage capacity throughout Zambia to 400MWh.
In 2023, the global economy weakened, and inflation saw a decline, impacting the willingness of key contributing countries to undertake major installations. Concurrently, the production capacities of raw materials crucial for solar and energy storage, such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, have surged, resulting in an oversupply and subsequent ongoing reduction in final product prices.
Nevertheless, the burgeoning energy storage industry has brought to light the economic viability of energy storage systems. As the sector advances, there are increasingly more locations and scenarios showcasing robust demand for Energy Storage Systems (ESS). Consequently, it is anticipated that the demand for ESS will continue to rise.
The dynamics of lithium carbonate supply and demand are poised to shift from a tight balance to a more relaxed state, with a projected price decline exceeding 80% this year. According to Baiinfo, if the scheduled new production capacities for lithium carbonate materialize on time, global production capacity could reach 1,092,000 tons by the end of 2023 and escalate to 1,642,000 tons by 2025.
On the demand side, with a deceleration in the growth rate of electric vehicle (EV) sales, anticipated lithium carbonate demand from 2023 to 2025 is projected at 531,700, 652,000, and 757,000 tons, respectively. Additionally, factoring in current installations, the demand for lithium carbonate in the energy storage sector is expected to reach 90,900, 148,200, and 230,300 tons from 2023 to 2025.
Moreover, the global demand for lithium carbonate in consumption and other typical industries is estimated to be 973,000, 1,179,000, and 1,388,000 tons in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. This indicates that the production capacity of lithium carbonate continues to exceed its demand. In 2023, as the growth rate of EV sales slowed, the price of lithium carbonate plummeted from its peak of 560,000 yuan per ton to a low point in 2023 of 99,000 yuan per ton, representing a decline of over 80%.
Potential Installation Bottleneck:
The Challenge of High-Power IGBT Modules
Customer demand for IGBTs still lags behind the capacity expansion rate of overseas enterprises, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand. Consequently, there persists a bottleneck in the installation of high-power energy storage plants. The current localization rate of IGBT modules remains relatively low, keeping PCS capacity tightly balanced. Efforts to alleviate this bottleneck have yet to fully materialize.
With the rapid expansion of new energy installations, the evolution of power trading models, cost reductions in raw materials, and influential top-level policy initiatives, the global new energy storage market is experiencing dynamic growth.
Projections for Global Installations of Energy Storage in 2024
As the primary incremental markets globally, China, the United States, and Europe are projected to account for 84% of the total new installations in 2024, sustaining their leadership in driving demand growth for the global energy storage market. Analyzing market share, the Asia-Pacific and Europe show consistent and steady growth in installed demand, whereas the Americas experience a decline. Meanwhile, the Middle East and Africa emerge as strong growth performers, driven by their low base and the imminent grid connections of their winning projects.
Currently, key players in Asia have set explicit installed capacity targets and rolled out a series of top-tier policies to intensify efforts in boosting this capacity. Moreover, the challenge of wind and solar consumption is a shared concern across many nations, underscoring the anticipation of a continued high growth rate in overall demand for energy storage installations by 2024. TrendForce predicts that by 2024, new energy storage installations in Asia will hit 34.3 GW/78.2GWh, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth rate of 40% and 47%. Notably, China remains at the forefront of global demand for energy storage.
Most subsidized energy storage policies in the Americas rely heavily on tax credits and additional feed-in tariff incentives. The urgency for developing energy storage in North America, along with the economics of energy storage projects, surpasses that of Latin America. Latin America faces constraints such as limited available land and the absence of a regulatory system, making it a longer journey to reach the period of installed demand for energy storage volume. Projections indicate that by 2024, the new installed capacity for energy storage in the Americas will hit 15.6GW/48.9GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 27% and 30%, though the growth rate has notably slowed. Notably, the United States continues to dominate the demand for energy storage in the Americas.
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Our world has a storage problem.
As the technology for generating renewable energy has advanced at breakneck pace – almost tripling globally between 2011 and 2022 – one thing has become clear: our ability to tap into renewable power has outstripped our ability to store it.
Storage is indispensable to the green energy revolution. The most abundant sources of renewable energy today are only intermittently available and need a steady, stored supply to smooth out these fluctuations. Energy storage technologies are also the key to lowering energy costs and integrating more renewable power into our grids, fast.
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The gap to fill is very wide indeed. The International Renewable Agency (IRENA) ran the numbers, estimating that 360 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage would be needed worldwide by 2030 to keep rising global temperatures below the 1.5°C ceiling. Only that will allow us to get almost 70% of our energy from renewable sources. The world urgently needs more pumped hydropower storage, more decentralized mini-grids, and bigger, better, and more recyclable electrochemical batteries. We need accelerated testing of new technologies, like green hydrogen, thermal storage using molten salts, or flywheel-based mechanical solutions.
When it comes to ramping up storage in developing countries, many creative actors are already working hard to get the mix right: setting out regulatory frameworks that can successfully monetize the value of new storage technologies, pioneering innovative new business models, and building the kind of infrastructure needed for a huge scale-up.
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