Despite challenging overall market conditions in 2023, continuing investments in frontier technologies promise substantial future growth in enterprise adoption. Generative AI (gen AI) has been a standout trend since 2022, with the extraordinary uptick in interest and investment in this technology un Contact online >>
Despite challenging overall market conditions in 2023, continuing investments in frontier technologies promise substantial future growth in enterprise adoption. Generative AI (gen AI) has been a standout trend since 2022, with the extraordinary uptick in interest and investment in this technology unlocking innovative possibilities across interconnected trends such as robotics and immersive reality. While the macroeconomic environment with elevated interest rates has affected equity capital investment and hiring, underlying indicators—including optimism, innovation, and longer-term talent needs—reflect a positive long-term trajectory in the 15 technology trends we analyzed.
This year, we reflected the shifts in the technology landscape with two changes on the list of trends: digital trust and cybersecurity (integrating what we had previously described as Web3 and trust architectures) and the future of robotics. Robotics technologies'' synergy with AI is paving the way for groundbreaking innovations and operational shifts across the economic and workforce landscapes. We also deployed a survey to measure adoption levels across trends.
These are among the findings in the latest McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook, in which the McKinsey Technology Council identified the most significant technology trends unfolding today. This research is intended to help executives plan ahead by developing an understanding of potential use cases, sources of value, adoption drivers, and the critical skills needed to bring these opportunities to fruition.
Our analysis examines quantitative measures of interest, innovation, investment, and talent to gauge the momentum of each trend. Recognizing the long-term nature and interdependence of these trends, we also delve into the underlying technologies, uncertainties, and questions surrounding each trend. (For more about new developments in our research, please see the sidebar "What''s new in this year''s analysis"; for more about the research itself, please see the sidebar "Research methodology.")
Data sources for the scores include the following:
In addition, we updated the selection and definition of trends from last year''s report to reflect the evolution of technology trends:
Finally, we used survey data to calculate the enterprise-wide adoption scores for each trend:
Electrification and renewables was the other trend that bucked the economic headwinds, posting the highest investment and interest scores among all the trends we evaluated. Job postings for this sector also showed a modest increase.
Although many trends faced declines in investment and hiring in 2023, the long-term outlook remains positive. This optimism is supported by the continued longer-term growth in job postings for the analyzed trends (up 8 percent from 2021 to 2023) and enterprises'' continued innovation and heightened interest in harnessing these technologies, particularly for future growth.
Even with the short-term vicissitudes in talent demand, our analysis of 4.3 million job postings across our 15 tech trends underscored a wide skills gap. Compared with the global average, fewer than half the number of potential candidates have the high-demand tech skills specified in job postings. Despite the year-on-year decreases for job postings in many trends from 2022 to 2023, the number of tech-related job postings in 2023 still represented an 8 percent increase from 2021, suggesting the potential for longer-term growth (Exhibit 1).
The trajectory of enterprise technology adoption is often described as an S-curve that traces the following pattern: technical innovation and exploration, experimenting with the technology, initial pilots in the business, scaling the impact throughout the business, and eventual fully scaled adoption (Exhibit 2). This pattern is evident in this year''s survey analysis of enterprise adoption conducted across our 15 technologies. Adoption levels vary across different industries and company sizes, as does the perceived progress toward adoption.
A graph depicts the adoption curve of technology trends, scored from 1 to 5, where 1 represents frontier innovation, located at the bottom left corner of the curve; 2 is experimenting, located slightly above frontier innovation; 3 is piloting, which follows the upward trajectory of the curve; 4 is scaling, marked by a vertical ascent as adoption increases; and 5 is fully scaled, positioned at the top of the curve, indicating near-complete adoption.
In 2023, the trends are positioned along the adoption curve as follows: future of space technologies and quantum technologies are at the frontier innovation stage; climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables, future of bioengineering, future of mobility, future of robotics, and immersive-reality technologies are at the experimenting stage; digital trust and cybersecurity, electrification and renewables, industrializing machine learning, and next-gen software development are at the piloting stage; and advanced connectivity, applied AI, cloud and edge computing, and generative AI are at the scaling stage.
Footnote: Trend is more relevant to certain industries, resulting in lower overall adoption across industries compared with adoption within relevant industries.
End of image description.
We see that the technologies in the S-curve''s early stages of innovation and experimenting are either on the leading edge of progress, such as quantum technologies and robotics, or are more relevant to a specific set of industries, such as bioengineering and space. Factors that could affect the adoption of these technologies include high costs, specialized applications, and balancing the breadth of technology investments against focusing on a select few that may offer substantial first-mover advantages.
As technologies gain traction and move beyond experimenting, adoption rates start accelerating, and companies invest more in piloting and scaling. We see this shift in a number of trends, such as next-generation software development and electrification. Gen AI''s rapid advancement leads among trends analyzed, about a quarter of respondents self-reporting that they are scaling its use. More mature technologies, like cloud and edge computing and advanced connectivity, continued their rapid pace of adoption, serving as enablers for the adoption of other emerging technologies as well (Exhibit 3).
A segmented bar graph shows the adoption levels of tech trends in 2023 as a percentage of respondents. The trends are divided into 5 segments, comprising 100%: fully scaled, scaling, piloting, experimenting, and not investing. The trends are arranged based on the combined percentage sum of fully scaled and scaling shares. Listed from highest to lowest, these combined percentages are as follows:
The process of scaling technology adoption also requires a conducive external ecosystem where user trust and readiness, business model economics, regulatory environments, and talent availability play crucial roles. Since these ecosystem factors vary by geography and industry, we see different adoption scenarios playing out. For instance, while the leading banks in Latin America are on par with their North American counterparts in deploying gen AI use cases, the adoption of robotics in manufacturing sectors varies significantly due to differing labor costs affecting the business case for automation.
Lareina Yee is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Bay Area office, where Michael Chuiis a McKinsey Global Institute partner, Roger Robertsis a partner, and Mena Issler is an associate partner.
They also wish to thank the external members of the McKinsey Technology Council for their insights and perspectives, including Ajay Agrawal, Azeem Azhar, Ben Lorica, Benedict Evans, John Martinis, and Jordan Jacobs.
Special thanks to McKinsey Global Publishing colleagues Barr Seitz, Diane Rice, Kanika Punwani, Katie Shearer, LaShon Malone, Mary Gayen, Nayomi Chibana, Richard Johnson, Stephen Landau, and Victor Cuevas for making this interactive come alive.
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