Job Market in Oslo: Employment increased by 0.5 percent in Oslo in the second quarter of 2024. The accommodation and food service industry experienced strong growth during the summer, while the number of workers in the construction industry continued to decline. Despite the increase in employment, t Contact online >>
Job Market in Oslo: Employment increased by 0.5 percent in Oslo in the second quarter of 2024. The accommodation and food service industry experienced strong growth during the summer, while the number of workers in the construction industry continued to decline. Despite the increase in employment, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percent to 2.8 percent. Unemployment remains low compared to both historical levels and other Nordic capitals.
Business in Oslo: Investment activity in Oslo remained low in the second quarter after a moderate increase in the previous quarter. Investments in growth companies fell significantly from 281 million dollar to 89 million dollar, a reduction of 68 percent. The number of establishments has stabilized at a lower level in the past year compared to 2021 and 2022. The number of bankruptcies increased by 27 percent from the previous quarter and is now at its highest since the COVID-19 lockdown. Most of the bankruptcies were in the construction industry.
City Attractiveness: In the second quarter of 2024, only 174 housing units were initiated, the lowest number since the same quarter last year. So far in the third quarter, there are signs of improvement, with 474 housing units initiated in July. Housing prices reached new heights in the second quarter before stabilising at the beginning of the third quarter.
Employment: The number of employees increased by 0.5 percent in the second quarter of 2024, after a decline in the first quarter of the year. Employment growth was driven by the public sector, which increased by 0.8 percent, while employment in the private sector increased by 0.3 percent. The accommodation and food service industry experienced strong growth after the decline in the first quarter of 2024, likely due to increased tourism to Oslo in the spring and early summer. The financial sector continues its strong development from the beginning of 2024, while the decline in employment in the construction industry persist.
Despite an increase in the number of employees, unemployment in Oslo increased by 0.3 percent. At the end of July, the unemployment rate was 2.8 percent, the highest level since the winter of 2022. Although unemployment has increased somewhat over the past year, it remains at a low level compared to historical levels and the other Nordic capitals.
Vacancies: In the second quarter and so far in the third quarter, the number of job vacancies in Oslo has decreased. With 5 380 job vacancies at the end of July, this marks the lowest level this year. This is primarily due to seasonal variations and the summer vacation. Compared to July 2023, this represents a 23 percent increase. The number of job vacancies was high in 2021 and 2022, but rising interest rates are starting to affect businesses, resulting in a decreased demand for labor. This, combined with a moderate increase in employment and unemployment, suggests that the labor shortage has decreased in the business sector.
New establishments and bankruptcies: New establishments have stabilised at a lower level, while bankruptcies are increasing. In the second quarter of 2024, 1 323 companies were established in Oslo. New establishments have stabilised between 1 240 and 1 450 per quarter in the past year, significantly lower than the up to 2 000 per quarter in 2020-2022.
Bankruptcies in Oslo rose to 252 in the second quarter, a 27 percent increase from the previous quarter and the highest since the COVID-19 lockdown in the fourth quarter of 2020. Most bankruptcies were in the construction, accommodation and service, and scientific and technical services sectors.
Investments in Scaleups: Investment activity remained low in the second quarter following a moderate increase in the number of investments in Oslo in the first quarter of 2024. During the second quarter, 32 investments were made in Oslo, a decrease of 40 percent compared to the same quarter in 2023 when there were 53 investments. Copenhagen and Stockholm, like Oslo, experienced fewer investments in the second quarter, while Helsinki saw more investments than in the previous three quarters.
The invested amount in Oslo''s growth companies fell significantly in the second quarter of 2024. The invested amount decreased from 281 million dollars in the first quarter to 89 million dollars in the second quarter, a drop of 68 percent. Compared to the same period last year, this is a decline of 53 percent. Preliminary figures for the third quarter show 55 million dollars invested in Oslo, more than in Helsinki, but less in the other Nordic capitals.
Houses under construction: The number of new housing units initiated in Oslo fell sharply in the second quarter of 2024 but showed signs of improvements at the start of the third quarter. Only 174 unites were initiated in the second quarter, the lowest since the second quarter of 2023 in the past four years. This has led to fewer employees in construction, as shown in Figure 2. Challenges in the sector continues due to high financial costs and rising materials prices. However, data from July shows an improvement with 474 housing units initiated.
Development in house prices: House prices in Oslo are now at their highest levels ever. After rising in the second quarter, prices have stabilized at the beginning of the third quarter. July, typically a weak month in the housing market, saw no change in prices. Compared to July last year, prices are up by 3 percent. Early indicators for August 2024 suggest continued strong growth in house price. This may be due to expectations of an interest rate cut during the winter and a limited supply of completed homes keeping prices high.
Population Trends: In the second quarter of 2024, Oslo experienced negative population growth. There was a net emigration of 815 people. Net domestic emigration was 1 147, while there was a net immigration from abroad of 332 people. The second quarter is usually a period that experiences a population decline due to seasonal variations. The population decline in the second quarter is comparable to the same period in 2023.
Note: Net immigration is here defined as immigration minus emigration during the period. Net domestic migration is migration from other parts of Norway to Oslo minus migration from Oslo to other parts of Norway.
Visitors: Overnight stays and occupancy rates indicate a stable development in the tourism industry in Oslo. In June 2024, there were 678 000 overnight stays in Oslo, with a capacity utilization of 82 percent of hotel rooms. The numbers for both overnight stays and occupancy rates are comparable to June 2023, showing that tourists continue to travel to Oslo. Factors such as weak Norwegian krone and heatwaves in Europe have attracted visitors.
Economic forecasting is an important planning tool for individuals, businesses and the authorities. Independent forecasts with free universal access are beneficial to society, and form part of Statistics Norway''s social mission to produce macroeconomic forecasting.
The term ''projection'' is used in relation to any forward-looking calculation, including improbable scenarios, while a ''forecast'' is a prediction of the future condition of the economy that is considered most likely at the time the forecast is made.nThe terms used in the economic trend publications are largely based on the terms in the national accounts, see https://
Name: Economic trendsnTopic: National accounts and business cycles
It is part of Statistics Norway''s remit to produce forecasts with free universal access, and the guidelines for research and analysis in Statistics Norway (Retningslinjer for forsknings- og analysevirksomheten i SSB - in Norwegian only) from the Ministry of Finance stipulate that forecasting and the monitoring of economic cycles are an important part of Statistics Norway''s work, see also the article on why Statistics Norway produces forecasts for economic trends in the Norwegian economy (Hvorfor lager SSB prognoser for utviklingen i norsk økonomi? - in Norwegian only).
Statistics Norway has been publishing macroeconomic forecasts for more than 30 years. The Economic trends articles describe the economic situation in Norway and abroad and give estimates of the main economic variables for the current year and the three subsequent years.
The forecasts are mainly prepared by researchers in the research department. There is a strong focus on transparency in relation to the assumptions underlying the forecasts, which are produced using the empirical macroeconomic model KVARTS. This model is based on national accounts data and financial behaviour, and is updated with new data on an ongoing basis. Using such a macroeconomic model ensures that the forecasts for the many variables are consistent with each other and with economic theory. Sensitivity analyses describing how changing assumptions affect the forecasts are often performed for the economic trend articles. Forecasting therefore also helps to shed light on the functioning of the economy.
Forecasting is an important planning tool (see also fact box). Households'' choices will often be based on expectations of developments in macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, wages, house prices and unemployment. For example, a household that is considering buying a house would find it relevant to calculate the burden that interest charges is likely to represent.
Companies will not only be interested in general macroeconomic developments, but in price and cost trends and demand. The picture that companies have of the market situation dictates whether they recruit more workers or invest in new production equipment.
When negotiating wages, employers and trade unions are interested in inflation rates and unemployment levels.
The ongoing monitoring of economic cycles is necessary for ensuring that other parts of Statistics Norway''s social mission are also carried out. The Government uses KVARTS in its work on the national budget, and the Ministry of Finance receives an updated model and forecasts after each economic trends publication. The Ministry of Finance then compiles its own forecasts for the Norwegian economy.
In the 1990s, Statistics Norway signed an agreement with the Storting''s Finance Committee and the Ministry of Finance to carry out macroeconomic calculations for an alternative national budget for the parties in parliament, see for example Statistics Norway''s calculations of the Frp party''s national budget proposal for 2013 (SSBs beregninger av Frps forslag til statsbudsjett for 2013 - in Norwegian only).
Statistics Norway also assists the Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements in producing estimates of the annual growth in the consumer price index. In addition, Statistics Norway takes on assignments from ministries and prepares Official Norwegian Reports (Norges offentlige utredninger, or NOUs) with analyses of the Norwegian economy. All these elements of the social mission require Statistics Norway to stay abreast of the trajectory of the Norwegian economy.
The projections are not subject to any particular statutory basis.
There are no EU regulations in this field.
Models are simplifications of reality, and they often only capture a few key mechanisms. This also applies to the macroeconomic model KVARTS that is used in the work on economic trends. Each year, the Norwegian publication on the economic outlook (Økonomisk utsyn) reviews the accuracy of the forecasts for the previous year. In addition, an analysis is made of the uncertainty in the estimates for mainland GDP, the consumer price index and the unemployment rate measured by the Labour Force Survey, based on the forecasts that Statistics Norway has published since 1991.
Documentation for the KVARTS macroeconomic model (in Norwegian)
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