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Other studies1,2,4,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34 use bottom-up process-based cost models (PBCM) similar to the BatPac but increase the accuracy of the manufacturing cost calculation by including installation cost, machine downtimes, lead times, and individual scrap rates for each production step. Most authors have customized their models to address particular research topics (e.g., the comparison between cylindrical and prismatic cells26) and have not publicly shared their models. As a result, these models are not readily applicable as universal tools for estimating the costs of various battery cells and production methods.
The presented model comprises six distinct stages (cf. Fig. 1): (1) and (2) establish the cell design, properties, and process chain, along with the overall production volume. (3) calculates the required material throughput for each selected process based on individual scrap rates. (4) determines the resource requirements. (5) calculates the individual process costs followed by the calculation of full, marginal, and levelized costs in (6).
Calculation procedure of the model to determine the production costs.
We investigate two cell types due to the availability of data and relevance within the automotive sector: cylindrical cells of modern dimensions (4680) and standard prismatic hard case cells (PHEV2) with a flat cell winding, both as used by Tesla (cf. Fig. 2).
Considered cell types including the type of jelly roll: cylindrical 4680 cells with round core winding (a) and the prismatic PHEV2 cell with prismatic core winding (b).
The case study assumes a yearly production volume of 10 GWh. The factory is located in Germany and operates 360 days a year, with a 3-shift operation lasting 8 h each (including a 1-h break). The modeled plant incorporates an excess capacity of 25%40, providing a buffer against potential production interruptions. This allows the machines to deliver a theoretical 25% higher throughput. Table 3 presents the general production parameters used in the case study.
The fabrication of LIB cells is a series of sequential and interrelated process steps38. The process chain design for this case study, chosen in consultation with experts, is shown schematically in Fig. 3. The figure illustrates both the actual material and by-products flow sequence during the process steps (light blue path) and the anterograde calculation of material flow that includes generated scrap (dark blue path).
Production processes for the prismatic hardcase PHEV2 and cylindrical 4680 cells.
Battery production cost can be measured by full, levelized, and marginal costs. Several studies analyze the full costs, but the components are not clearly defined. For example, capital costs and taxes are omitted by most authors. For comparability and since there is no consistent calculation method used by the other authors, this paper omits both factors in the full cost calculation.
Levelized costs are a more complete and more clearly defined metric. They describe the average price an investor needs to realize from selling a product to achieve a zero net present value (NPV). This includes covering all operating expenses, payment of debt, and imputed capital cost on the initial project expenses, as well as an acceptable return to the investor41,42. This paper follows the formal definition of levelized cost from Reichelstein and Rohlfing-Bastian43, but adapts the calculation logic to include recurring investments for the periodic replacement of machines.
Another important cost measure is the marginal unit cost which reflects the costs to produce another unit of output. They are used for short-term production decisions44. In the case of battery cells, marginal costs include all material, energy, and direct labor necessary to produce another kWh of battery capacity but neglect fixed costs like investments in the production facility. It is possible that reports of very low battery production costs5 refer to marginal costs instead of the full costs. This paper reports all three measures to ensure comparability.
The case study covers 14 different configurations, including two cell formats, four cell chemistries, and the option to recover scrap material. Figure 4 presents the full cost, levelized cost, and marginal cost for both cell formats and each configuration. The calculations are based on the production processes shown in Fig. 3.
Split of the full cost, levelized cost, and marginal cost of the evaluated battery designs without and with recovering scrap material for the prismatic hardcase PHEV2 (a) and the cylindrical 4680 cell (b). NMC811: LiNi0.8Co0.1Mn0.1O2, LFP: LiFePO4.
When analyzing the full cost and its cost shares, several effects become apparent or need to be considered:
The costs of the cylindrical 4680 and the prismatic flat wound PHEV2 cell design only differ by less than 1%. Hence, both cell designs are competitive from a cost perspective. The slight difference should not be interpreted as one cell design being superior as single input parameters can offset these differences.
Qualifying new materials has a high potential for reducing costs, as the material accounts for around 78% (LFP chemistry) and over 82% (NMC811 chemistry) of the overall cell costs. Similarly, it becomes apparent that reaching a material cost reduction through cutting scrap rates and efficient scrap recovery can considerably impact the total costs. This underlines the need for the scale-up of efficient recycling processes.
Blending the anode with Si increases the energy density of both the PHEV2 and the 4680 cells, as Si has a higher specific capacity (cf. Table 2). This effect is slightly diminished by the higher porosity of the silicon-containing anode. By reducing the share of passive material, a cost reduction results. Although the addition of silicon leads to an increased SEI loss and higher demand for expensive cathode active material, both effects balance each other out, resulting in only a slight cost reduction with increasing Si content.
The material expansion during cycling causes an accelerated cycle life aging of silicon-containing anodes47. This effect causes higher costs for silicon-containing cells in terms of cycle life, which could negate the advantage of the slight cost reduction. Regarding the current EV mileage requirements of 200,000 km, a lifetime of around 1000 cycles would be necessary for a single range of 200 km, which reduces with increasing energy densities48. Therefore, in particular, for a second-life scenario, the impact of cycle life on cell costs becomes crucial. The same effect applies to the cells with LFP-based cathodes, as these cells provide an overall longer cycle life49, leading to reduced total costs of ownership.
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