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Due to the promising applications in low-cost and high performance photovoltaic
This 2023 update to our Net Zero Roadmap surveys the complex and dynamic energy landscape and sets out an updated pathway to net zero by 2050, taking account of the key developments that have occurred since 2021.
IEA (2023), CCUS, IEA, Paris https://, Licence: CC BY 4.0
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A feasibility analysis reveals that carbon capture and storage capacity might be able to expand fast enough to meet the requirements of 2 °C climate pathways but will unlikely meet those for 1.5 °C. Moreover, carbon capture and storage is unlikely to capture and store more than 600 Gt of CO2 over the twenty-first century, which has implications for the global carbon budget.
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This is a summary of: Kazlou, T. et al. Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi /10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0 (2024).
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DOI: https://doi /10.1038/s41558-024-02112-0
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a key role in climate mitigation pathways, yet its feasibility is vigorously debated1,2,3. The recent interest in CCS4,5,6, including negative emissions technologies—direct air capture (DACCS) and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)—is reflected in plans to increase CCS capacity eight-fold from 2023 to 20307. However, 10 years ago, a similar wave of CCS plans5 largely failed8,9. Can the new push bring CCS on track10,11,12,13 for the Paris climate targets?
Answering this question requires overcoming three challenges. The first is anticipating how many CCS plans are likely to succeed. The second is projecting medium-term growth of CCS, given the uncertainty about the drivers of, and barriers to, its uptake14,15. The third is estimating feasible long-term growth rates that depend on the size of the future CCS market16,17.
Recent reports indicate that if all current project plans are realized, operational CCS capacity would reach 0.34 Gt yr−1 by 20305,7. However, we have seen ambitious plans before; the initially promising first wave of CCS plans failed to meet expectations despite a number of supportive policies8,9,42 (Fig. 2 and Extended Data Fig. 1). If all plans from the first wave had been realized, today''s operational capacity would be around 0.27 Gt yr−1 (Supplementary Table 1), instead of the paltry 0.04 Gt yr−1 operational today.
Despite being in line with the realistic range of 2040 CCS capacity, most pathways fall outside the feasibility frontier when we account for the timing of acceleration (Fig. 3). A total of 76% of 1.5 °C- and 42% of 2 °C-compatible pathways depict unrealistically fast growth by 2030, with an additional 14% of both 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-compatible pathways requiring unrealistically fast acceleration from 2030–2040. Only 10% of 1.5 °C- and 44% of 2 °C-compatible pathways are located within the feasibility frontier for the formative and acceleration phases. Even under a less realistic assumption that the growth of CCS will accelerate as fast as for FGD, only 18% of the 1.5 °C-compatible pathways would be within the feasibility frontier.
After acceleration, technologies enter a stable growth phase when annual additions peak at the maximum growth rate (G) at the inflection point of the S-curve19 (Fig. 1). We find that the median values of the maximum annual additions of CCS capacity were similar (0.4–0.5 Gt yr−1 added annually) across the 1.5 °C-, 2 °C- and 2.5 °C-compatible pathways (Supplementary Figs. 2 and 3). What varies is when the fastest growth is achieved: in the 1.5 °C-compatible pathways, it occurs around 2045, in the 2 °C-compatible pathways around 2055 and in the 2.5 °C-compatible pathways around 2065.
We use policy-driven low-carbon technologies—nuclear, wind and solar power—as reference cases for growth rates at the stable growth phase. We complement global observations with regional and national observations where the growth of these technologies had already peaked (Extended Data Table 1)19,55. To compare maximum annual capacity additions across reference cases and mitigation pathways, we normalize G to the size of the market—the total electricity supply for the reference cases, and the sum of the gross CO2 emissions in sectors with capturable emissions plus negative emissions from BECCS and DACCS for CCS (Methods).
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