This article is written by Charlotte Remteng, Muhammad Bello Suleiman, Chiamaka Maureen Asoegwu and Chysom Nnaemeka Emenyonu as part of the requirements for the Open Africa Power Fellowship Programme 2021. It is a sub-section of the publication, Country Project Nigeria. Contact online >>
This article is written by Charlotte Remteng, Muhammad Bello Suleiman, Chiamaka Maureen Asoegwu and Chysom Nnaemeka Emenyonu as part of the requirements for the Open Africa Power Fellowship Programme 2021. It is a sub-section of the publication, Country Project Nigeria.
Fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas have been the principal sources of energy in Nigeria.The trends in the total energy supply for coal from 1990 to 2018 are shown. By 1990, there was a steep decline until 2000. An increase in the use of coal is seen from 2000 till 2015 till about 2018 when it fell slightly (Figure 3). Coal was discovered in Nigeria in 1909 in Enugu, eastern Nigeria, with early production dating back to 1916. About 24,500 tonnes of coal was produced and used for mass (railway) transportation, which increased electricity generation, and industrial activities.
Total energy supply from Hydro on the other hand increased for over a decade (1990-2000), with sharp increase between 2000 and 2005, followed by falls till 2015 when TES from hydro increase from about 450 to 550 ktoe (Figure 6).
According to the Nigerian Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC), electricity generation started in Nigeria in 1896 but the first electric utility company, known as the Nigerian Electricity Supply Company, was established in 1929.
By 2001, the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) were established to remedy the power shortage situation. In 2005, Nigeria had an estimated 6,861 MW of installed electricity generating capacity (Babatunde and Shauibu, 2011).
In 2O10, the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET) was established as a credible off-taker of electric power from generation companies. By November 2013, the privatization of all generations was complete. Also, By July 2014, the total installed capacity of generating plants increased to 8,876 MW but with an available capacity of about 3,795MW.
There are currently 23 grid-connected generating plants in operation in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) with a total installed capacity of 11,165.4 MW and an available capacity of 7,139.6 MW. Most generation is thermal-based, with an installed capacity of 9,044 MW (81% of the total) and an available capacity of 6,079.6 MW (83% of the total). Hydropower from three major plants accounts for 1,938.4 MW of total installed capacity (and an available capacity of 1,060 MW).
Actual electricity supply has been significantly less than load demand, for instance in 2014 and 2016, the actual supply lagged behind the power demand by 21,639MW and 23,401MW respectively, representing about 15% and 17% of power availability. Thus, there is no corresponding increase in electricity generation as population increase as shown in 2014 where country''s population increased to 165 million but the total available power generated stood at 3,795MW (Babatunde and Shauibu, 2011).
Currently, Nigeria is one of the most underpowered countries in the world, with actual consumption 80% below expectations based on current population and income levels. Self-generation in Nigeria is extremely prevalent; nearly 14GW capacity exists in small-scale diesel and petrol generators, and nearly half of all electricity consumed is self-generated implying a huge unserved demand. Given this, we can assume that Nigeria''s demand gap is significant, though exactly how large is disputed. The significant differences in these estimates demonstrate the difficulty, and importance, of accurate demand forecasting (See table 3 below)
This makes a large segment of Nigerians rely on alternative sources of power using mostly fossil fuel (both centralized large-scale and small diesel generators) which contribute significantly to carbon footprints.
Currently, the transmission system is made up of about 5,523.8 km of 330 kV lines, 6,801.49 km of 132 kV lines, and 24,000km of sub-transmission lines (33kV) (KPMG, 2016). The power distribution network is presently made up of 19,000Km of 11kV lines and about 22,500 Substations. Currently, 11 electricity distribution companies are covering the entire country.
By 2013, the privatization of 10 distribution companies was completed with the Federal Government retaining the ownership of the transmission company. The privatization of the 11th distribution company was completed in November 2014. There are currently 11 Electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) in Nigeria.
The World Energy Outlook 2020 database (IEA, 2020) as published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) placed electricity access in Nigeria at 61.6% as of 2019, with 77 million people without power supply. The country has a total population estimated at 195 million. Of this number, 51% live in urban areas while 49% live in rural areas. Electricity access for the urban population was placed at 91.4%, while that of the rural population was placed at 30.4%, an approximately 6-point decline from 36% recorded in 2018.
The Nigerian government has set three important and somewhat ambitious targets for its electricity sector by 2030 given the current realities. These three targets are related to access to electricity, renewable energy development, and emissions reduction. With regards to access to electricity for all, the country has a target of 90% of the population inclusive of those in rural and urban areas, having access to electricity (Henrich, B.S, 2019).
Nigeria has the largest population and largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa but suffers from limitations in the power sector which constrains the economic growth of the country. Nigeria is endowed with large oil, gas, hydro, and solar resources, and has the potential to generate 12,522MW of electric power from existing plants, not including off-grid generation (USAID). On most days, however, it is only able to dispatch around 4,000MW, which is insufficient for a country of over 195 million people.
Despite the figures above, Nigeria continues to struggle in dispatching at full capacity. On the 28th of February, 2021, the country recorded the highest ever dispatch power of 5,615.40MW, which was 22MW higher than, and came just three days after the previous peak of 5,593.40MW was recorded (The Guardian news, Nigeria). This is very dismal for a country with an estimated energy demand of more than 98,000MW (Nigerian Energy Report, 2019).
Challenges such as insufficient gas and grid infrastructure have hindered the growth of the traditional power sector and have necessitated the need to move beyond gas-fired power plants to the utilization of renewable energy, and supplement on-grid power with off-grid renewable solutions.
Nigeria is a signatory to the Paris Agreement, having submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions on the 28th of November, 2015, signed the agreement on the 22nd of September, 2016, and ratified the agreement on the 16th of May, 2017. The NDC Sectoral Action Plan was developed and then validated in July 2018 prioritizing five major sectors - agriculture, industry, power, transport, and oil and gas; with the Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment being the agency to drive national implementation.
Nigeria''s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to grow 114% to around 900 million tonnes by 2030, but its NDC aligned to the country''s development policy targets a 20% unconditional and 45% conditional emission reduction below Business as Usual (BAU) by 2030.
Consequently, the Nigerian government has set a capacity expansion target of 30 GW installed on-grid capacity by 2030 with grid-connected renewable energy contributing 13.8 GW (45% of generation) with the inclusion of medium and large hydropower, and 9.1GW (30% of generation) when excluding them.
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