This report makes several contributions. First, it uses satellite imagery to evaluate two key projects in North Korea against global standards. It confirms that the Pyongyang Thermal Power Complex, one of North Korea's two largest thermal electricity producers, is in a state of dire disrepair. The O Contact online >>
This report makes several contributions. First, it uses satellite imagery to evaluate two key projects in North Korea against global standards. It confirms that the Pyongyang Thermal Power Complex, one of North Korea''s two largest thermal electricity producers, is in a state of dire disrepair. The Orangchon Power Station Project, though under construction for over three decades, remains incomplete. Both projects fail to meet the Group of Twenty (G20) Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment announced in June 2019. These initial evaluations underscore the poor state of North Korea''s existing energy infrastructure and its significant need for quality investment.
Finally, this report considers the strategic implications of reconnecting the Korean peninsula through energy infrastructure. Examples like the European Coal and Steel Community show how forging economic connections can help build the foundation for a lasting peace. But interdependence can also be weaponized, as Russia''s and China''s histories of using energy infrastructure as tools of coercion show. The United States should be mindful of these considerations as it works in coordination with its ally South Korea to ensure that a reconnected Korean peninsula develops in a manner that is sustainable, open, and resilient.
At the annual G20 Summit in June 2019, leaders from the world''s wealthiest economies adopted the G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment. The document presents a framework of voluntary, non-binding principles to make such investments more sustainable and transparent in the future.
Principle 1: Maximizing the Positive Impact of Infrastructure to Achieve Sustainable Growth and Development. Quality infrastructure investment should ensure sound public finances while also maximizing the positive economic,environmental, social, and developmental impacts of infrastructure to stimulate "a virtuous circle of economic activities."
Principle 2: Raising Economic Efficiency in View of Life-Cycle Costs. Quality infrastructure investment should be affordable and attain economic, social, and environmental value relative to a project''s life-cycle costs during all stages of the project, including "planning, design, finance, construction, operation and maintenance (O&M), and possible disposal."
Principle 3: Integrating Environmental Considerations in Infrastructure Investments. Quality infrastructure investment should account for the positive and negative impacts of projects on ecosystems, biodiversity, climate, weather, and resource use throughout the infrastructure investment process.
Principle 4: Building Resilience against Natural Disasters and Other Risks. Quality infrastructure investment should ensure the long-term adaptability of infrastructure and build resilience against the onset of environmental changes, and the growing number and magnitude of natural disasters and man-made risks.
Principle 5: Integrating Social Considerations in Infrastructure Investment. Quality infrastructure investment should enable the economic participation and inclusion of all and should consider and manage economic and social impacts throughout the life cycle of a project.
Principle 6: Strengthening Infrastructure Governance. Quality infrastructure investment should be governed soundly through the development of clear rules, robust institutions, and good governance to ensure cost-effectiveness, accountability, transparency, and integrity throughout the project life cycle.
Principle 1: Sustainable Growth and Development
Principle 2: Economic Efficiency and Life-Cycle Costs
Even with foreign aid and investment, the complex evidently lacks sufficient financing and plans for its operation and maintenance. News reports indicate the complex undergoes repair and maintenance procedures for turbines, generators, and boilers on a near-monthly basis. 2 Some South Korean news reports have also indicated that the government has considered closing the complex altogether, deeming it highly inefficient. However, at present, there are not sufficient alternative sources of power generation for the area the complex serves.Amid restrictions imposed by international sanctions, it is doubtful that the most current and innovative technologies will be leveraged toward economic efficiency in the complex''s life-cycle costs in the foreseeable future.
Principle 3: Environmental Considerations
If environmental impact assessments (EIAs) were conducted for either the 2002 modernization project with Russia or the 2018 generator upgrade project with China, they are not currently available to the public. There is no open-source information to indicate that EIAs were shared with stakeholders or that ecosystem-based adaptations have been explored. However, given local and South Korean media reports attributing excessive amounts of air and water pollution to this plant, it appears unlikely that any such adaptions have been considered or implemented to any meaningful degree.
UNDP resources and programs in the 1990s did seek to reduce environmental damage caused by North Korea''s older power plants, including the Pyongyang Thermal Power Station, by providing improved power generation designs, modern computerized systems, and better training for professional staff. However, according to the 2012 "Democratic People''s Republic of Korea Environment and Climate Change Outlook," published by the UNDP and North Korea''s Ministry of Land and Environmental Protection, air quality in parts of Pyongyang has continued to exceed acceptable levels.
A 2003 report by the UNDP and North Korea''s National Coordinating Committee for the Environment did outline and assess country-wide environmental concerns. Although the assessment was not specific to the Pyongyang Thermal Power Complex, it did propose a joint project to introduce dust collection at the plant. Including the report''s considerations in the complex''s ongoing and future investment plans could greatly mitigate its environmental impact.
Principle 4: Disaster Risk Management
A comprehensive disaster risk management plan is not currently publicly available, so it cannot be verified whether such plans have been used in the plant''s design, modernization, or maintenance or taken into consideration when drafting protocols to re-establish essential services in case of an emergency. Project financing terms and agreements are also not publicly available, so financing for preventive measures, disaster risk mitigation, and insurance cannot be verified.
Principle 5: Social Considerations
It cannot be verified whether social impacts have been considered as an important component in either the maintenance and operation of the complex or its most recent modernization projects.
Details on the complex''s occupational safety and health policies are not readily available.
However, news reports suggest medical teams visit the complex to offer services and treatment to employees. North Korean state media indicates university student delegations visit the complex as part of collaborative efforts to improve internal infrastructure. Visiting technical teams from Russia and China—and past projects with the UNDP—have also made isolated efforts to develop workforce skills through the projects they sponsor.
The Pyongyang Thermal Power Complex is overseen by the Pyongyang City Bureau of the Ministry of Electric Power Industry. This institution is presumably responsible for undertaking the cost-benefit analysis of the complex, assessing its financial sustainability, and prioritizing potential projects.
There is no evidence that the decisionmaking, bidding, and execution processes for any of the modernization or O&M projects at the Pyongyang Thermal Power Complex have been transparent, fair, informed, or inclusive.
The complex encompasses approximately 38.8 hectares (95.9 acres) and is served by both rail and road. Coal is regularly supplied via a railyard immediately south of the complex. Water for cooling and other purposes is supplied from a canal feed by the Potonggang ("Potong River"), which runs along the west side of the complex. High voltage power lines, originating in the switch (transformer) yard, exit the complex to the north, south, and east. There are undoubtedly underground power lines exiting the complex as well. What appear to be pipelines for steam exit the complex to the north.
The complex has been operational since the mid-1960s and continues to be operational today, as determined by the emanation of smoke from one or both of the two stacks in all 57 satellite images reviewed for this report from August 1965 to November 2020. Additionally, smaller plumes are frequently visible emanating from roof vents of the generator hall in most satellite images. Numerous rail cars are observed in the rail yard servicing the facility in these same satellite images. 3 Although the majority of these rail cars are ore (coal) cars or gondolas, locomotives of various sizes, box cars, tank cars, flat cars, and even the occasional passenger car are also observed in the rail yard.
While observable changes have taken place since the early 2000s, available satellite imagery suggests that these have not been transformational and that significant investment would likely be required to replace old and inefficient power generation and distribution equipment, modernize operations to make them economically viable by foreign standards, bring the plant up to internationally accepted operating and safety standards, and address what may be significant environmental issues.
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