The impact of climate and environmental change as major drivers of migration has attracted both scientific and policy attention since the late 1980s (Piguet, 2013; Ionesco et al., 2017; Flavell et al., 2020). Whilst ongoing scientific debates have sought to clarify environmental change-related migration as often mediated by the associated complex multi-casual socio-cultural, economic and political factors (Piguet and Laczko, 2014; Cattaneo et al. 2019), it is also increasingly recognised that climate change will aggravate environmental degradation and natural hazards, and as such increase population movements in especially regions that are highly exposed and vulnerable to climate-related risks and shocks (Renaud et al. 2011; Hummel, 2012; Rigaud et al., 2018).
In the Southern African region, for example, the devastating impact of Cyclone Eline in 2000 resulted in the displacement of more than one million people (NRC, IDMC and UNHCR, 2015). More recently (in 2019), cyclones Idai and Kenneth respectively displaced 640,000 and 45,000 people in the region (IDMC, 2020). Taking into consideration the nature and spatial extent of future climate change impact and natural hazards, Rigaud et al. (2018) project that under a scenario of sustained carbon emissions and unequal levels of development, sub-Saharan Africa could record up to more than 85 million climate-related migrants by 2050.
United Nations House13 UN RoadMaseruLesotho100
Lesotho is a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa that has a high risk to natural hazards including floods, drought, frost, strong winds, and heavy snowfall.
In response to an official request received from the Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho, a National Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster-related Statistics was held in Maseru, Lesotho 31 October to 2 November 2023. This workshop was organized by the UNDRR, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) in collaboration with the Bureau of Statistics and Disaster Management Authority of Lesotho.
The workshop highlighted that to ensure efficient policies and practices to reduce disaster risks, knowledge building and governance must be done in coordination for example through centralization of data. The workshop brought together 32 participants from the Bureau of Statistics, Lesotho Meteorological Services, Ministry of Natural Resources, Maseru City Council, Ministry of Agriculture, and other UN organizations. International requirements and frameworks related to environment and disaster-related statistics and policy were discussed and assessed against national experience.
"This workshop was an important first step to strengthen the collaboration and facilitate the exchange of ideas between all the relevant government agencies and is going to improve our literacy and how we communicate these data to our stakeholders."- Malehloa Celina Molato, Director of Bureau of Statistics of Lesotho
Notably, the participation of a representative from Eswatini''s National Disaster Management Authority on Eswatini''s data collection experience further enriched the learning process given the similar contextual disposition of the two countries.
"The similar contexts of Lesotho and Eswatini has led to a more nuanced learning experience and this opportunity to learn from each other was invaluable. Through this workshop, I have identified several improvements through this learning to be implemented back in Eswatini that are contextual and evidence backed." - Bonkhe Mchobokazi, National Disaster Management Authority of Eswatini.
The workshop in Lesotho served as a catalyst for increased cooperation and collaboration between various governmental ministries, departments, and agencies. It led to the identification and establishment of collaboration structures, self-assessment tools approaches that can be taken forward in Lesotho''s progress towards climate change and disaster-related statistics.
The Paris Agreement of 2015 sets out a global framework to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C (degrees Celsius), compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this global temperature goal, countries aim to reduce growth of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and rapid reductions thereafter, based on the best available science, economic and social feasibility.
The effects of climate change are already well visible by increasing air temperatures, melting glaciers and decreasing polar ice caps, rising sea levels, increasing desertification, as well as by more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and storms. Climate change is not globally uniform and affects some regions more than others. On the following diagrams, you can see how climate change has already affected the region of Maseru during the past 40 years. The data source used is ERA5, the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate, covering the time range from 1979 to 2021, with a spatial resolution of 30 km.
The data will not show conditions at an exact location. Micro-climates and local differences will not appear. Therefore, temperatures will be often higher than those displayed especially in cities and precipitation may vary locally, depending on topography.
The top graph shows an estimate of the mean annual temperature for the larger region of Maseru. The dashed blue line is the linear climate change trend. If the trend line is going up from left to right, the temperature trend is positive and it is getting warmer in Maseru due to climate change. If it is horizontal, no clear trend is seen, and if it is going down, conditions in Maseru are becoming colder over time.
In the lower part the graph shows the so called warming stripes. Each coloured stripe represents the average temperature for a year - blue for colder and red for warmer years.
The top graph shows an estimate of mean total precipitation for the larger region of Maseru. The dashed blue line is the linear climate change trend. If the trend line is going up from left to right, the precipitation trend is positive and it is getting wetter in Maseru due to climate change. If it is horizontal, no clear trend is seen and if it is going down conditions are becoming drier in Maseru over time.
In the lower part the graph shows the so called precipitation stripes. Each coloured stripe represents the total precipitation of a year - green for wetter and brown for drier years.
The top graph shows the temperature anomaly for every month since 1979 up to now. The anomaly tells you by how much it was warmer or colder than the 30 year climate mean of 1980-2010. Thus, red months were warmer and blue months were colder than normal. In most locations, you will find an increase of warmer months over the years, which reflects the global warming associated with climate change.
The lower graph shows the precipitation anomaly for every month since 1979 up to now. The anomaly tells you if a month had more or less precipitation than the 30 year climate mean of 1980-2010. Thus, green months were wetter and brown months were drier than normal.
This graph focuses on the specified month. If you select e.g. August, then the temperature and precipitation anomaly for every August since 1979 are shown. Thereby, you can see in which years August was warmer or colder (drier or wetter) than normal.
Extreme events are not visible in these data - they may have different frequency, and critical thresholds may be surpassed at a higher frequency. Our history+ service gives you access to the detailled underlying hourly data, for the variables of temperature, precipitation and many more.
The main question concerns the future: What will be the trend for the next 10-40 years? meteoblue can provide climate predictions for the next decades.
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We would like to express our gratitude to the following groups of people: 1) the farmers interviewed for access to their farms, their time and their participation, 2) Lesotho government officials for sharing their information, 3) officials from the Lesotho Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security for arranging meetings with agricultural extension workers through resource centers in the three villages; and last but not least, the editors and two anonymous reviewers for comments that improved the original paper considerably.
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