Fossil fuels widely dominate South Korea’s energy mix. The country''s decarbonisation progress is insufficient, and its 2050 carbon neutrality target looks increasingly out of reach. Furthermore, South Korea is a major energy importer, which recently led to the most significant electricity rate hike since the 1980s. And while renewables can provide a way out of this dependency, the country seems to be looking to move in another direction.
South Korea relies heavily on nuclear power for its electricity generation, with approximately 27 reactors operating in the country as of 2021. Nuclear energy accounts for nearly 30% of South Korea’s total electricity production, making it a crucial source of power for the nation.
On January 11 2023, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) finalised its 10th Basic Energy Plan’s main content.
The major highlight is that, in the coming years, South Korea will prioritise a shift back to nuclear energy. Thisremovesformer President Moon Jae-in’s policy, which was adopted in relation to Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident.
MOTIE outlines several priorities that it hopes to address through the plan, including:
As per the targets, South Korea''s energy mix by 2030 and 2036 are as follows:
Despite being one of the most innovative countries, South Korea is a climate laggard. The share of renewable energy in the power mix of South Korea is just 9% as of 2021. Compared to other G20 countries, South Korea is phasing out coal much more slowly. Climate Action Tracker ranks the country’s overall climate efforts as "highly insufficient.
In 2019, the country was theninth biggest energy consumerglobally and theeighth biggest source of GHG emissions. Moreover, it has one ofthe lowest energy independencescores in Asia.
The proposed South Korean energy mix for 2030 and 2036 won’t help address those issues. On top of them, it might also surface additional risks, including:
South Korea has a net-zero target by 2050. The country''snationally determined contribution (NDC)includes a goal of slashing greenhouse gas emissions by40% by 2030. In the upcoming weeks, the government will have to publish the pathway it intends to follow to achieve its 2030 goals, which will clarify how realistic those targets are.
However, judging by the proposed energy mix, the country is likely to still be massively relying on fossil fuels by 2030. South Korea risks failing to reach its 2030 emissions reduction target without establishing more ambitious short-term targets.
At COP26, South Korea joined theGlobal Coal to Clean Power Transition, aiming to phase out coal power. The country also joined theGlobal Methane Pledge, which targets a 30% reduction of methane emissions by 2030. Furthermore, under thePowering Past Coal Alliance, which Seoul is a part of, members aim to phase out coal use by 2030.
The proposed 2030 and 2036 energy mix scenarios will still have coal power generation and liquefied natural gas (LNG) responsible for over 40% and 24% of electricity generation, respectively. Furthermore, the country''s latest "Green Taxonomy" considersgas a green fuel.
Korean businesses have joined the RE100 initiative en masse in the past few years. Even companies criticised for their climate commitments, likeSamsung, are now a part of the global movement. Samsung, South Korea''sleading electricity consumer,even plans to "voice industry-wide concerns" regarding the high clean energy costs in the country.
At the start of the year, six companies that are part of SK Group alsojoined the initiative. Together, they consume 5% of South Korea''s total electricity use.
As of the end of November 2022,28 South Korean companiesare part of the RE100 initiative. Korean corporations have repeatedly beencalling for more ambitious clean energy policiesand governmental support. However, the country’s 10th Basic Energy Plan fails to address this.
While the 21.6% clean energy target by 2030 is achievable, it is unambitious. The country needs to aim for a 30% share of renewables by 2030, asplanned initially. Research suggests that a 30% renewable energy target by 2030 isnecessaryto achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Other studies suggest pursuing targets of53% by 2030to enable net-zero by the middle of the century.
To achieve its climate goals, South Korea can start by streamlining licensing and approvals. According to estimates, reducing the average distance of separation for solar installations from 300 to 100 m wouldfree up 438 GWof solar power potential.
On top of that, the country should educate its population on the benefits of clean energy and unite public opinion. This is a significant issue that has recently led to thecancellation or rejection of projects.
The RE100also suggests an increased focus on enabling the rapid scaling up of the domestic clean energy supply. To do that, the country should improve grid flexibility and ensure fair compensation and equal grid access for power generators.
While unlikely to undergo significant changes before its official launch in March, South Korea''s 10th Basic Energy Plan leaves room for further improvement. First, it will be revised every two years, which makes it very flexible for incorporating new interim targets or refining existing ones. Moreover, the eighth and ninth editions of the Basic Energy Plan were updated on the go to reflect an enhanced NDC and a 2050 carbon neutrality roadmap.
In fact, the Ministry of Energy and the Green Growth Committee recentlyrequested that MOTIE increase its 21.6% clean energy target in the energy plan draft. However, at the time,MOTIE rejectedthe request. This clearly indicates that the country''s leadership recognises the need for more ambitious renewable energy targets, which might lead to revisions in the near future.
If South Korea''s leadership improves the 21.6% renewable energy target for 2030, it can expect various benefits, including:
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