Climate change st george

For the second year in a row, it has set a new mark for its hottest July on record. Daytime high temperatures in St. George averaged a stifling 107.9 degrees this July. That broke last year's record of 107.4 degrees
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For the second year in a row, it has set a new mark for its hottest July on record. Daytime high temperatures in St. George averaged a stifling 107.9 degrees this July. That broke last year''s record of 107.4 degrees

The 107.9 average was also a full 6 degrees warmer than St. George''s historical average from 1991-2020 and made it the hottest place in Utah. The city''s average temperature, which combines daily highs and lows, was also the warmest in the state at 92 degrees.

While temperatures in much of northern Utah were also above average in July, the increases were most pronounced across the southern part of the state.

Kanab had its hottest July on record with an average high of 99.2 degrees. That''s 5 degrees warmer than its historical normal. It also broke the city''s previous record of 98.4 degrees from 2023. Cedar City''s average high was 94.8 degrees, which tied for its second-hottest July on record. In Canyonlands National Park, the average high of 94.4 degrees tied for third-hottest.

As climate change — fueled by greenhouse gas emissions — drives temperatures to new heights around the world, dangerous heat in Utah is becoming the new normal.

"If you took away climate change from the background, you may still have this heat wave occurring," said National Weather Service Meteorologist David Church. "But how extreme it becomes or how frequent it becomes is dictated by what''s happening with climate change."

This summer, a ridge of high pressure has held hot, dry weather over southwest Utah, and there hasn''t been much relief from the delayed monsoon season.

"With that lack of moisture and that strong high-pressure system, that really lets us have much hotter days," Church said.

"Thunderstorms are kind of mother nature''s way to restore energy balance in the atmosphere. So that acts as a cooling mechanism to bring some rain-cooled air (and) develop cloud cover."

That''s fueled a vicious cycle of compounding heat.

High temperatures in St. George have reached 100 degrees every day since June 21, 2024. That stretch of 46 consecutive days is the city''s second-longest streak on record and shows little sign of cooling. Based on the latest forecasts, Church said it''s near-certain the streak will extend through Aug. 10, and it has an 83% chance of extending through Aug. 15.

If that happens, St. George would set a new record for its highest number of consecutive 100-degree days. The previous record of 54 days has stood since 1995.

The long-term forecast doesn''t offer much more hope either, Church said, with temperatures expected to remain above average through August and into the fall.

This type of relentless heat can quickly lead to tragic effects, especially as visitation at the region''s outdoor recreation sites continues to grow.

During one hot weekend in mid-July, three hikers died — a 52-year-old man and his 23-year-old daughter in Canyonlands National Park and a 30-year-old woman at Snow Canyon State Park near St. George. The following weekend, a 56-year-old woman died while hiking in Quail Creek State Park in Hurricane.

"With more people, especially those unfamiliar with desert conditions, the likelihood of heat-related incidents rises. This makes it crucial to enhance our educational efforts and ensure all visitors are well-prepared," said Utah State Parks spokesperson Lindsay Higbee.

Like many other public lands agencies, Utah State Parks posts information about heat safety online and on social media, she said. Some parks, such as Snow Canyon, have also posted extra signs to warn visitors about the dangers of heat and the importance of hydration.

"With the extreme heat we''re experiencing this summer, it''s more important than ever for visitors to practice heat safety. We encourage everyone to take precautions, stay informed about current conditions and be fully prepared for the challenges of recreating in the heat."

La Niña is coming. For Utah''s ongoing water challenges, that could either be good or bad news.

This weather pattern is the cool phase of a climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, when temperatures in the Pacific Ocean drop below normal. It doesn''t have a particularly strong connection to Utah''s weather compared to other parts of the U.S., such as places prone to hurricanes.

Still, it could help deliver a wetter monsoon season to southern Utah, which relies on that precipitation during the hot summer months. But that extra moisture may not last.

"As we get into the winter, one of the strong connections that La Niña has is drier and warmer conditions through the West and the South, which can lead to drought," said Emily Becker, who writes about El Niño and La Niña for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The latest NOAA forecast predicts an 83% chance the current El Niño will end by June and a 62% chance La Niña will take its place between June and August.

The timing of La Niña''s arrival matters for Utah''s weather. If it doesn''t show up until the end of summer, it might be too late to have an impact on this year''s monsoons. But Jon Meyer, assistant state climatologist with the Utah Climate Center, said the outlook remains favorable.

A wetter-than-average summer could be especially handy if the forecast for a drier winter comes to fruition. The chance of La Niña developing by December is more than 80%.

"Our desert Southwest neighbors California, Arizona and New Mexico tend to have drier [winter] conditions during these La Niña events. Southern Utah joins that, to a degree," Meyer said. "We''re a little bit less confident in how that will affect farther up into the Utah latitudes."

There''s also a chance that it could pile on top of existing climate change and aridification, said Becker, who''s also associate director of the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.

"The trend is already towards drier and warmer in the West. So La Niña can tilt the arms even farther. Then you run the risk of compounding those effects."

But drawing long-term weather forecasts from these patterns can be tricky.

Utah''s most recent La Niña winter in 2022-2023, for example, brought record-breaking snowpack instead of dry conditions. Things get even more unpredictable as climate change pushes the Earth''s weather into new territory, she said. Scientists are still figuring out how broad climate shifts, such as alarmingly warm ocean temperatures, impact patterns like La Niña.

Other times, however, the forecasts hold up. The current El Niño ended up being one of the five strongest since 1950, Becker said, and, as predicted, it brought some extra moisture to southern Utah this winter.

St. George received 3.57 inches of precipitation from December to February, ranking this meteorological winter as the 34th wettest out of 130 years on record. In Cedar City, 2.71 inches fell, making it the 25th wettest winter out of 76 years. Canyonlands National Park got 2.33 inches, its 11th wettest out of 58 years, and Bryce Canyon National Park got 5.10 inches, its 18th wettest out of 64 years.

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